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An Election Too Far?

October 11, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

This has been an election characterized by low emotions. We’ve all had almost visceral reactions to the tenor (and words) of the entire process.

The 2nd debate reignited those feelings. The attacks from both candidates were like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Trump threatened to appoint a special prosecutor to go after Clinton and Hillary came right out and stated that Donald was unfit to be president. And so much more. An amazing spectacle it was.

It feels wrong, cheapened somehow. Our presidential election should be better, nobler. 

But it’s not. And I’m blaming the market. Allow me to explain my meaning.

Washington is ineffectual, out of touch and increasingly corrupt. Obama’s answer for any problem is more oversight, more regulation, more intrusion. The Clintons bring more of the same but with their own particular brand of nastiness. Always playing at the margins, lying – and then lying about lying. The emails, The Foundation. Monica. 30 years of sordid dealings, shattered careers and cattle futures. The list stretches on.

The Justice Department seems almost criminally corrupt and hell-bent on protecting Hillary. I’m still in awe at the blatancy of Lynch’s airport tarmac meeting with Bill.

The FBI had been the last bastion of integrity. Director Comey shattered that belief. Cheryl Mills (along with four other senior Clinton aides) given full immunity in exchange for…nothing. So much was wrong with the whole investigation.

At some point there comes a time to restore the faith and integrity of our governmental institutions. Or to just give up.

And so, enter Trump. To me he is really a manifestation of a market-based reaction, a market-driven event. We, as a nation have been clamoring for a cleansing of Washington – an event – a sea change of some kind. And that may be exactly what Trump is. I am not saying Trump is the right answer but I do think this is why he’s here.

The market produced a candidate willing to take on some of the really unpleasant but necessary tasks at hand. A candidate who’s not pretty and polished but rough, unpredictable, angry. An agent of change.

When a market undergoes a correction – either because it is overdue for one or it’s been hit by an exogenous event – it’s a wrenching and painful time – almost by definition. People fight against it, they’re scared (change is difficult), it’s beyond any one person’s control. The process itself is never pretty but in the end it cleans out the system and brings it back to a better place.

Conservatives bemoan the candidate we have put forth and long for a re-do. But what if he’s the right one – what if he’s the only one willing to do what needs to be done? What if there really is no one else who can or will? I fully understand a more polished and qualified candidate may have won easily against Hillary. God knows she’s beatable. But would they be able to then take that next crucial step of actually turning Washington inside out? I doubt it. I don’t know that Trump can – if he can even win.

I think we are in extraordinary times. Washington is overdue for a correction and Hillary is an exogenous event. The level of intertwined self-interests and self-dealings along with the network of lies is almost humbling in its audacity. And everyone seems to be involved. We are making a decision far larger than who we want (or can stomach) for president.

It’s moved to the point where politeness, decorum and civility have merely become havens for lies. Using soft and polite words in return is not going to work. We long for the nobility of Reagan’s era but we simply do not have that luxury.

The advent of the Tea Party in ’09 was the real beginning but it wasn’t enough. The Tea Party’s birth was a market correction. Perhaps Trump is the recession.

 

newer post  Just Because You’re Paranoid…

older post  Donald Unchained

 

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Filed Under: All Posts, Globalism, Hillary Clinton, President Trump, The Left

Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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