“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what’s in it” – Nancy Pelosi
“You don’t get to hold the entire economy, the entire country, hostage because you don’t like the outcome of the election” – Elizabeth Warren
“There are many things that can be done administratively by the IRS and other government agencies” to silence groups that obstruct Democratic policies – Chuck Schumer
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi held a press conference on Friday to berate President Trump for “accomplishing nothing” in his first 4 weeks as President. I could only shake my head – and hope that she keeps talking.
Here’s a quick list – in no particular order – of President Trump’s accomplishments so far:
- Nominated Neil Gorsuch for the Supreme Court
- Imposed a hiring freeze on nonessential federal workers
- Imposed a temporary moratorium on new federal regulations
- Actively pursuing deregulation – Congress utilizing Congressional Review Act
- Preliminary announcements on pending tax cuts
- Executive Order to review Dodd-Frank – repeal or substantial alteration likely
- Travel Ban – a new Executive Order being worked on – new Executive Order likely the week of 2/20-2/24
- A re-focus on National Security -started the implementation of a vetting process and a plan to defeat ISIS
- Effectively killed ObamaCare – No IRS reporting requirement on health insurance coverage
- Ordered construction of wall along the Mexican border
- Placed sanctions on Iran – expect further developments against Iran’s nuclear goals
- Crackdown on sanctuary cities refusing to comply with federal law
- Deportation of “convicted criminal” illegal immigrants
- Negotiation opened on U.S. government contracts – All suppliers to U.S. Government placed on notice
- Withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal
- Approved the Dakota Access Pipeline and the Keystone Pipeline
- Eliminated regulations for manufacturers
- Reinstated the Mexico City Policy
Of equal importance are the events transpiring as a result of the plans for deregulation, tax cuts and the reinstatement of a business friendly environment here in the United States.
- Strong employment data – overall job growth and workers rejoining the workforce
- American plants and factories moving back into U.S.
- Job announcements by foreign and domestic companies
- Japan’s $450 billion investment plans in U.S. – 700,000 domestic jobs
All of these individual items have added up to what may be Trump’s greatest gift – $3.1 trillion in market value creation – an utterly unprecedented increase. Take away all the Liberal hyperventilation and get to raw numbers. We have just witnessed the greatest creation of value that the world has ever experienced. It was always there – it was just waiting to be released. All it needed was for government to get out of the way.
Government personified by the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, John Lewis and Al Franken. These politicians are simply losing their minds. They want you to believe their nonsense – it plays to their base but I think it helps conservatives in the long run. For my own part, I want them to keep putting themselves out there – keep their opposition vocal. Every time I hear Elizabeth Warren speak I have to work to keep from laughing. Nancy Pelosi makes me wince, smirk and chuckle. Chuck Schumer’s tearful moment was drop-dead hilarious. The contrast in listening to Republican Congressmen like Trey Gowdy, Jason Chaffetz, Mike Lee and Ted Cruz is almost startling. How did Democrats manage to elect so many outright incompetent members of Congress? Outrage and hysteria is not an agenda. Note to Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker – please run in 2020. Please.
The media reactions to Trump’s press conference were utterly predictable. I knew it, you knew it. Trump planned on it. So, when Jake Tapper said of the press conference, “It was unhinged”, I chuckled and thanked Jake for his service. I would like to point out that the controversial nomination of Scott Pruitt as head of the EPA quietly went through on Friday – the day after President Trump’s news conference took over the MSM news flow. Trump’s base loved the press conference and found themselves re-energized. I loved it. It was fantastically entertaining – not unhinged. A poll was just released that said 68% of people think the media is too critical of President Trump. Trump knows this and is using the media as the very tool to invalidate themselves. The latest Gallup poll on the public’s trust in the media was at an all-time low in September 2016 – it’s likely lower now. An interesting note – only 14% of Republicans trusted the media versus 51% of Democrats – a telling number on several levels.
The now Very Fake News – would have you believe that chaos is reigning supreme. I always prefer to fall back on the financial markets as a true source of news. The markets are unemotional, forward looking and they contain the best and latest information. The markets are apolitical. The markets favor conservative economic policies like tax cuts and deregulation – but that’s simple economic sense and science – not politics. The markets don’t care if liberals – or conservatives – are upset. The markets filter out news and headlines that aren’t real.
The markets distill information.
GDP growth is trending up, Consumer Confidence is up, Retail Sales are up, Employment Data is strong and workers that had given up looking for employment are rejoining the workforce.
We have seen the creation of $3.1 trillion in value and a roughly 12% run-up in stock market indices since President Trump’s election. This is not happening in a vacuum – it is a direct response to the economic policies being put in place.
Now, overlay this factual market data against the hysteria being put forth by liberals and progressives. It’s almost not worth even writing but…which side do you believe is telling the truth – the financial markets or the press?
A quick aside, I sometimes hear claims that the market surge is coming latently from the Obama Administration’s policies. This argument holds no merit for a couple reasons. The Obama Administration was characterized by Government Regulation – and lectures. The 2016 Federal Register page count (the daily depository of rules and regulations) ended 2016 with 97,110 pages,– 15,470 pages were added in the last month of 2016 alone – by far an all-time record. Of the ten all-time-highest Federal Register total page counts, seven occurred under President Obama. The hidden costs of regulations exceed even those of taxes – see: Trump’s Deregulation Gift. These economic anchors – the direct cost of taxes and hidden costs of regulation – help to explain how the Obama Administration doubled our national debt burden to $20 trillion while never achieving GDP growth in excess of 3%. Financial markets hate regulations even more than they hate taxes. Obama’s policies were holding the markets back. The second argument is more basic – and concrete. Markets are forward looking. They process all known information and expectations into current prices. Any latent Obama factor was already priced in.
The new information to the market was the unexpected win by President Trump – and Trump’s follow-through on his campaign promises – to cut taxes and regulations. That is what’s driving the markets.
Stock markets are up roughly 12% since Trump’s election. Stocks have not seen a 1% decrease since October 11, the longest streak since 2006. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, and the Nasdaq have all hit closing records for five straight days, the longest three-index winning streak in 25 years. The Nasdaq has set a record-high close seven days in a row, the longest streak since 1999. These types of market moves are unlikely to continue unabated – I think it’s quite likely we will see a market pullback at some point in the near future – perhaps this week. But don’t let it fool you – because that’s all it will be – a pullback. I think we are in the midst of one of the great Bull Market runs – as long as President Trump can get his policies enacted. If the market falters it won’t be because of Trump – it will be because of Democrat tactics.
My money, quite literally, is on Trump.
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