“Scientists begin from the assumption that there is an objective reality, independent of our hopes and desires.” – Dr. Lucy Jones
The March for Science took place on Saturday. Although billed as a non-partisan event, it was not. The movement was forced to update their website by changing multiple sections, including their statement on diversity. Here is the current statement:
“Inclusion, diversity, equity, and accessibility are integral to this mission and to our overall goals and principles. People have rightly pointed out that some of our own public communications, including social media posts, have not affirmed this stance. We hear your feedback and have been working to align our communications with our values. We are actively partnering with and seeking advice from organizations and individuals with expertise in this area. We cannot ignore issues of racism, sexism, homophobia, ableism, xenophobia, or any other form of discrimination in the discussion and implementation of science. Nor can we ignore the ways in which science has been misused to harm marginalized communities. The lack of inclusivity and diversity in STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering and Math] thwarts scientific advancements not only by limiting who conducts the research, but also by influencing what topics are studied, who participates in the research, and who will benefit from or be harmed by it.”
Bear in mind, the above reflects the March for Science’s adjusted and “de-politicized” statement. Now, here are direct quotes – really, I’m serious – from the original statement:
“There are certain things that we accept as facts with no alternatives. The Earth is becoming warmer due to human action. The diversity of life arose by evolution. Politicians who devalue expertise risk making decision that do not reflect reality and must be held accountable. An American government that ignores science to pursue ideological agendas endangers the world.”
“As the March for Science, we are committed to centralizing, highlighting, standing in solidarity with, and acting as accomplices with Black. Latina, API, indigenous, Muslim, Jewish, women, people with disabilities, poor, gay, lesbian, bisexual, queer, trans, non-binary, agender, and intersex scientists and science advocates.”
“Scientists as a group have largely remained silent on many critical subjects but science is intricately linked to every aspect of the world around us. Attacks on black and brown lives, oil pipelines through indigenous lands, sexual harassment and assault, ADA access in our communities, immigration policy, lack of clean water in several cities across the country, poverty wages, LGBTQIA rights and mass shootings – these are all complicated issues that would benefit from scientific research and attention, if only the government would supply the funding. In order to move forward as a scientific community, we must address and actively work to unlearn our problematic past and present, to make science available to everyone.”
Wait…What…You can’t be…
Never mind. I’ll let that statement speak for itself.
There was even a section inviting us to “Meet the scientists affected by The Immigration Ban”.
I thought this was a Science March…
You can find some of the original – and now removed – quotes I reference at the March for Science (Bellingham WA Chapter) Site. This local chapter still retains some of the original language from the original site.
Apparently, actual scientists, recognizing how silly this was beginning to appear, took control from the Social Justice Warriors – but only after the March was subject to fairly intense criticism from pretty much everyone – as noted by the New York Times here and here.
Nevertheless, not all were swayed. Dr. Lucy Jones, who has a Ph.D. in Geophysics from MIT and recently retired from the U.S. Geological Survey, penned an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times the day before the actual march. It can be found here. In it she makes a number of contrasting statements that I found particularly odd from one who should be devoted to the Scientific Method.
“We march to proclaim what we believe is a fundamental tenet of human life: Reality matters.”
“Science is not a set of facts or even techniques and procedures. Science is a process for understanding the nature of the world. Scientists begin from the assumption that there is an objective reality, independent of our hopes and desires. We try to understand the nature of that reality through observations and experiments. We get ideas and make models from those observations and from those models, make predictions of what will happen in the future. We test the predictions against reality to see if we are right.”
“Society needs the truth. No one who understands how climate works thinks we can continue to pollute our atmosphere without catastrophic cost. If climate change is true and we don’t believe it and keep on pouring greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, we will heat the world, do massive harm to ecosystems and destroy coastal cities. And given that we have already waited for too long to completely stop the process, we need help figuring out how to keep things from getting too bad and how to adapt to the changes we cannot stop.”
“Reality is real – and it doesn’t care what you believe.”
I almost don’t know where to start. But let’s begin at the most basic level. No one understands how the climate works. Nobody.
Every single climate model used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been consistently wrong in their predictions and have always generated overstatements in predicted temperature movements. The IPCC also cannot explain why their 55 different models differ in their descriptions of the past century’s global average surface temperature by more than three times the entire warming recorded during that time. Nor can they explain why the warming trend between 1978 and 1998 essentially stopped – despite computer climate model predictions of steady continual warming. Temperatures have actually been flat for the last twenty years – with all temperature variations falling well inside IPCC statistical margins of error.
As an example, 2016 was widely cited by the IPCC as the hottest year on record at 0.94°C above the long-term average, while 2015 was 0.90°C above the long-term average. This represents a difference of 0.04°C between 2016 and 2015. However, the IPCC margin of error is ±0.15 °C – or 4 times larger than the measured temperature differential. Using proper statistical measurement, 2016 and 2015 were tied for the warmest year. The years 1998, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014 are all tied for second warmest year.
I cover this and other unsettling facts in Climate Change Debate – Politics, False Consensus, Questionable Science & Some Questions. It’s a fairly long but enlightening read – using data and facts from the IPCC and their methodologies – and illustrates how it is simply impossible to state that Climate Change is settled – or even understood.
Here is the Scientific Method – elegant in its simplicity:
- Make an observation.
- Ask a question.
- Form a hypothesis or testable explanation.
- Make a prediction based on the hypothesis.
- Test the prediction.
- Iterate: use the results to make new hypotheses or predictions.
Or as the great theoretical physicist and Nobel Prize winner Richard Feynman noted; “If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.”
Dr. Jones effectively acknowledges this by stating “Scientists begin from the assumption that there is an objective reality, independent of our hopes and desires“.
Unfortunately, she then immediately moves to utterly contradict her own stated position on the Scientific Method:
“Society needs the truth. No one who understands how climate works thinks we can continue to pollute our atmosphere without catastrophic cost. If climate change is true and we don’t believe it and keep on pouring greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, we will heat the world, do massive harm to ecosystems and destroy coastal cities. And given that we have already waited for too long to completely stop the process, we need help figuring out how to keep things from getting too bad and how to adapt to the changes we cannot stop.”
Once again, no one understands how the climate works. Her entire statement is disingenuous – although she is careful with her initial phrasing. “No one who understands how climate works” – referring to undetermined all-knowing third parties. Dr. Jones then softens her language in the following sentence “If climate change is true“. She does not state it is true – although her previous sentence is structured to make it appear as though it is so. However, she immediately follows up her qualifying statement with a very direct set of effects that will take place – “we will heat the world, do massive harm to ecosystems and destroy coastal cities”. Dr. Jones apparently has a complete grasp of the effects of Climate Change – despite not understanding Climate Change itself – or if it’s even happening. Finally, note there is no solution provided. She concludes by effectively noting that she – along with every other scientist – need “help figuring out how to keep things from getting too bad”. That’s because they do not understand the interactions of the extremely complex systems involved. No one does. So how does anybody understand what correct course of action – if any – is to be taken?
Dr. Jones doesn’t know the answer – she doesn’t even know the question. But she wants you to do something.
Maybe she just wants you to march.
I absolutely believe in Climate Change. We have concrete geological evidence of its existence. But I don’t know if we are currently undergoing Global Warming. If we are undergoing Global Warming, I have no idea by what degree, nor how long or short the cycle. I don’t know the magnitude of human generated influences nor their direct impact on our climate. No one does.
Honesty and transparency are two hallmarks of science. Reproducibility of results is paramount. But we seem to be seeing little of this in the ongoing – and highly politicized – debate over Global Warming. I am hopeful that we may be able to engage in a more open – and honest – discussion of the topic. One free from Political Correctness and more inclusive of the honest endeavor of science.
I close with a final – and unintentionally humorous – quote from the illustrious Dr. Lucy Jones:
“The craziest of ideas get equal space with the truth on the Internet. You need to find your own way to the information that matters and to an analysis of its validity. That skill, collecting data and figuring out its significance, is what science is all about.”
On that point, Dr. Jones and I can agree.
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