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Fearing Trump in 2024, Will Democrats Pursue the 14th Amendment?

June 5, 2024 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

With the Senate’s recent vote to acquit President Donald Trump, it’s worth reminding ourselves that an impeachment is, as author and historian Victor Davis Hansen describes, an “indictment process” and that the Senate is where the “trial” is actually held.

It’s also worth noting that a Senate trial should never have been held in the first place, as Trump had already left office and was, by this time, a private citizen. This fact had already been acknowledged by John Roberts, the chief justice of the Supreme Court, who refused to preside over the Senate hearings.

Under more normal circumstances, having the chief justice preside over a Senate impeachment trial provides for a constitutionally mandated balancing of powers between the legislative, judicial, and executive branches of our government. However, in this instance, we witnessed the legislative branch (Congress) acting in a judicial capacity, directly pitted against a private citizen.Continue Reading

Biden Admin Officials Had Roles in Probes, Surveillance of Trump Campaign

March 14, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

As President Joe Biden constructs his new administration, individuals from the Obama administration are quietly resurfacing in positions of power. Some of these people are well-known, others lesser so. But they all played critical roles at various times during the Obama administration.

Susan Rice, Obama’s national security adviser and now the “top adviser to the president on domestic policy and related decisions,” has admitted to participating in the unmasking of members of the Trump transition team. Unmasking is the process in which a U.S. citizen’s identity is revealed from collected surveillance.Continue Reading

Pence Breaks Silence on Election Integrity But Ignores His Role in Events of Jan. 6

March 4, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

After more than a month, Mike Pence broke his silence on the events of Jan. 6, stating that “I share the concerns of millions of Americans about the integrity of the 2020 election.”

Pence’s comments came from a March 3, 2021, op-ed for the Daily Signal in which Pence expressed concerns over the integrity of the 2020 presidential election and argued against the passage of H.R. 1, a Democrat-backed bill known as the For the People Act, which essentially federalizes national elections, in part through the restriction and elimination of voter identity verification procedures.Continue Reading

Stefan Halper’s Role in Crossfire Hurricane More Significant than Previously known

February 28, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Halper’s information on Flynn, later described by an FBI agent as “not accurate,” likely initiated FBI probe

Newly released FBI documents shed light on two meetings between FBI Agent Stephen Somma and FBI source Stefan Halper, providing further insight into the wide scope of the FBI’s investigation into the Trump 2016 presidential campaign—and the active role played by Halper, who acted as a confidential human source (CHS) for the FBI.

Although Halper was not considered an official CHS for the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation prior to these meetings, Somma had known Halper since 2011, according to the Department of Justice Inspector General’s report on FISA Abuse. Additionally, Somma had served as Halper’s handler from “2011 through 2016” as part of Somma’s “regular investigative activities.”Continue Reading

DOJ Watchdog Criticizes Trump’s Firing of IGs, but Omits Key Facts in Matter

February 28, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Michael Horowitz, the Justice Department inspector general who wrote the Dec. 9, 2019, Review of Four FISA Applications, recently reaffirmed his earlier statements that Trump fired two inspectors general “for doing their jobs” and called Trump’s presidency “a challenging time … particularly in the last year” during a Feb. 10 online discussion hosted by Harvard Law School and moderated by Jack Goldsmith.

The interview came just a few weeks after Horowitz’s office announced on Jan. 15 that it was “initiating a review to examine the role and activity of DOJ and its components in preparing for and responding to the events at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.” The IG’s office also is investigating “whether any former or current DOJ official engaged in an improper attempt to have DOJ seek to alter the outcome of the 2020 Presidential Election.”Continue Reading

Time Magazine Details the ‘Shadow Campaign’ Against Trump

February 8, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it,” Time magazine says

In a surprisingly brazen article, “The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election,” Time magazine chronicles a myriad of pre- and post-election actions taken by a loose coalition of Democratic operatives, grassroots activists, mainstream media, tech companies, and corporate CEOs before and after the 2020 presidential election.

According to the article, the effort consisted of “a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information.”Continue Reading

The Larger Impact of the GameStop Investor Wars

January 28, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Investors and observers alike have been watching the incredible price movement and volatility escalation of the retail gaming company GameStop (GME). On Jan. 11, the stock closed just under $20 per share. On Jan. 28, it traded as high as $450 per share intraday and closed at $193.60.

The stock is currently trading around $350 per share in after-market hours.

At the heart of the incredible price movement lies an intense tug of war between retail investors and at least one large hedge fund—although there have been a number of other hedge funds circling the situation and involved in a variety of capacities. Melvin Capital had established a large short position in GameStop, betting the company’s stock price would fall.Continue Reading

How Will Pence Treat the Electoral Envelopes in His Hand?

January 5, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Whatever Pence chooses, the ramifications will be far-reaching

As Georgians headed to the polls for the state’s crucial Senate runoffs, a nation anxiously awaits Jan. 6, the date on which the Electoral College votes in our presidential election are to be formally counted.

There’s no small amount of confusion and uncertainty over what might take place on that day. That’s partly because, despite what media pundits may tell you, no one really knows.Continue Reading

Exact Fallout of Presidential Election Predicted in 2019 War-Game Paper

January 3, 2021 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Paper suggests use of 1887 act, congressional impasse leading to Pelosi as acting president

“It is Election Night 2020.This time it is all eyes on Pennsylvania, as whoever wins the Keystone State will win an Electoral College majority. Trump is ahead in the state by 20,000 votes…Continue Reading

Where Bill Barr Failed the President

December 17, 2020 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Attorney General Bill Barr announced his resignation on Dec. 14 in a letter sent to President Donald Trump. Barr’s exit, which will become effective on the 23rd, leaves a number of questions unanswered.

In his letter, Barr noted that he had updated the president on the Justice Department’s (DOJ’s) ongoing review of voter fraud allegations, stating that “these allegations will continue to be pursued,” while noting that “it is incumbent on all levels of government, and all agencies acting within their purview, to do all we can to ensure the integrity of elections and promote public confidence in their outcome.”Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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