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Climate Change, CO2, an EPA Power Grab & Some Experts

July 17, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A study published in June 2017 titled, On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding has found ongoing data manipulation issues within the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data used in the Climate Models. The study is written by Dr. James Wallace III, Dr. Joseph F. D’Aleo and Dr. Craig D. Idso. Unlike much of the work presented by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study has been peer-reviewed – by seven different Ph.D. scientists – all with prestigious backgrounds and multiple degrees. From the study:

The objective of this research was to test the hypothesis that Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data, produced by NOAA [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], NASA [National Aeronautics and Space Administration], and HADLEY [University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit], are sufficiently credible estimates of global average temperatures such that they can be relied upon for climate modeling and policy analysis purposes.

It was found that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And, it was nearly always accomplished by systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.

The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality.Continue Reading

The Strength of Opinions

July 13, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

When was the last time you changed someone’s opinion?

Structurally and fundamentally changed another’s underlying position on an issue?

My guess is maybe never.

I’m not talking about shifting someone’s viewpoint. That’s easier. It can be done – sometimes. The introduction of new facts or an economic perspective – additive information that enables existing opinions to be reframed and enhanced – evolved. But that’s not a fundamental change of opinion. It’s simply the incorporation of new data into positions already held.

I’m talking about fundamentally reshaping a belief. A complete position reversal.Continue Reading

The Frankfurt School, Twitter & False Claims of Anti-Semitism

July 10, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist – Keyser Soze – (paraphrasing Charles Baudelaire)

An interesting series of events transpired over the last several days.

Australian journalist Chris Uhlmann delivered a critical on-air opinion of President Trump at the G-20 Summit on July 8. You can watch the 2 minute video here. I do not share Mr. Uhlmann’s views on this particular issue but that’s an entirely separate matter.

Mr. Uhlmann’s video was quickly seized upon by those on the Left and widely disseminated across various social media platforms. Mr. Uhlmann was swiftly and widely championed by the Left – the video held aloft as a shining example of international opinion.

Then this happened:Continue Reading

CNN, Free Speech & Reddit – A Self-Destruction in Real-Time

July 7, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

The First Amendment of the Constitution is surprisingly short. It also applies only to restrictions against government actions. “Congress shall make no law…”

Over the years, courts have expanded the Free Speech interpretation of the First Amendment to apply against state and local governments in addition to the federal level. BUT – the First Amendment does not apply against companies, organizations or individuals.

In other words, CNN political analyst Kirsten Powers was correct when she noted that, “News organizations cannot violate a person’s First Amendment Rights”.Continue Reading

Celebrating Our Declaration of Independence

July 4, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

There is something beyond the establishment of a new nation, great as that event would be, in the Declaration of Independence which has ever since caused it to be regarded as one of the great charters that not only was to liberate America but was everywhere to ennoble humanity.

It was not because it was proposed to establish a new nation, but because it was proposed to establish a nation on new principles, that July 4, 1776, has come to be regarded as one of the greatest days in history.

Three very definite propositions were set out in its preamble regarding the nature of mankind and therefore of government. These were the doctrine that all men are created equal, that they are endowed with certain unalienable rights, and that therefore the source of the just powers of government must be derived from the consent of the governed.Continue Reading

Russian Dolls – A NYT Correction & An Intelligence Fabrication

June 30, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

An interesting correction appeared in the New York Times from a Maggie Haberman article on June 25th. I missed the actual correction but was alerted to it by a later article on the matter.

Part of what made the correction interesting was the manner in which the article was rewritten – done in a fashion that made it difficult to see where the correction actually applied – thereby attempting to render the whole correction moot.

Equally interesting was how the correction glossed over the makeup of our intelligence agencies – and inadvertently exposed how the Times – and almost every other news organization – exaggerated the role of the intelligence agencies in promoting the notion of Russian Collusion. It also highlights the roles played by the intelligence agencies actually involved:Continue Reading

Seattle’s Minimum Wage – Politics Versus Facts

June 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In 2014, the City of Seattle passed a  three-step minimum wage increase – from $9.32 to $15 per hour. You can find the exact details here. The $15 minimum wage began in 2017 for larger employers who do not provide healthcare benefits – $13.50 for those larger employers who do provide healthcare benefits. Adoption of the $15 rate by small businesses is set for 2021 – with inflation adjustments. Two wage increases have already been fully implemented. The first, from $9.32 to $11, occurred in 2015. A second increase – to $13 – took place in 2016.

And then a funny thing happened. The city, led by Seattle Mayor Ed Murray, decided to commission a study on the wage hikes – fully expecting the results would provide support for their position.Continue Reading

Trump’s Supreme Court Victory

June 26, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The Supreme Court granted President Trump what amounts to a crucial, although partial, stay of lesser court rulings on the Administration’s Travel Ban. The ruling was unanimous at 9-0. I have previously written on the Travel Ban, and, like many, am unsurprised at the ruling. The court will take up the case in October when it reconvenes – maybe.

You can find the full ruling by the Supreme Court here.

But first, it’s worth recalling exactly what the Travel Ban was attempting to accomplish. The second Executive Order’s Travel Ban contains four significant pronouncements:

  1. Directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to conduct a global review to determine whether foreign governments provide adequate information about nationals applying for United States visas.
  2. Directs that entry of nationals from six countries – Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen – be suspended for 90 days from the effective date of the order.
  3. Suspends the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) for 120 days following its effective date.
  4. Citing the President’s determination that “the entry of more than 50,000 refugees in fiscal year 2017 would be detrimental to the interests of the United States,” the order suspends any entries in excess of that number for fiscal 2017.

Continue Reading

13 Demands for Qatar

June 23, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued what can only be described as an onerous list of thirteen demands to Qatar. I previously wrote about the GCC’s cutting of ties with Qatar – and the unprecedented level of GCC coordination and cooperation from such an action.

The Middle East has realigned dramatically, dividing itself between those regimes who support extremism and those who oppose it. The GCC, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have chosen to stand against extremism. Iran – and Turkey – have chosen otherwise.

Qatar – a member of the GCC – has quietly, yet consistently, chosen to align itself with extremists – particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar supported the extremist factions in Syria throughout the civil war. And Qatar has subtly aligned itself with Iran – in direct opposition to the Saudi/Egypt led efforts to align Arab nations against the Iranian regime.

The allied GCC Arab nations want an end to Qatari interference in domestic politics, an end to support for extremism – and a strong unified GCC stance against Iran.Continue Reading

Illegal Voting – Some Uncomfortable Facts and Findings

June 20, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A while back, in A Voter-Fraud Friendly Environment, I documented the laughably lax voting requirements in my home state of California. Now we have a new report by Just Facts that concludes that “as many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election“. The Washington Times reported on the study yesterday.

I don’t know if the headline number is correct – although the methodology looks sound. I am far more interested in showing that illegal voting took place on some sort of significant scale than I am in determining the actual number. You can examine the Just Facts findings I highlight later in this piece and decide for yourself.

But first, a quick summary of the California voting situation:

  • No ID of any kind is required to actually vote at the ballot box
  • Illegal immigrants are legally allowed and encouraged to obtain CA drivers licenses
  • State officials chose not to make non-citizen license holders searchable in the DMV database
  • Eligible holders of CA driver licenses are automatically registered to vote
  • The California NVRA manual dictates a process of voter registration that makes it difficult not to be registered

Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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