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Judge Orrick’s Judicial Activism

April 27, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The role assigned to judges in our system was to interpret the Constitution and lesser laws, not to make them.” – President Ronald Reagan

Federal Judge William Orrick recently issued an injunction against President Trump’s proposed termination of certain types of federal funding for Sanctuary Cities through Executive Order 13768:

“The Counties’ motions for a nationwide preliminary injunction, enjoining enforcement of Section 9(a), are GRANTED. The defendants (other than the President) are enjoined from enforcing Section 9(a) of the Executive Order against jurisdictions they deem as sanctuary jurisdictions. This injunction does not impact the Government’s ability to use lawful means to enforce existing conditions of federal grants or 8 U.S.C. 1373, nor does it restrict the Secretary from developing regulations or preparing guidance on designating a jurisdiction as a “sanctuary jurisdiction.” IT IS SO ORDERED.”Continue Reading

The EU’s Two Intractable Issues & Election Anxiety

April 25, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Brussels is breathing a sigh of relief. The first round of the French elections have passed with Marie Le Pen, the anti-immigration, anti-European Union candidate, and Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, pro-open borders and pro-European Union, heading for a runoff election on May 7th. Macron is heavily favored to win the runoff election according to polls. It is telling that both candidates are effectively outsiders – candidates from the French establishment parties were defeated.

But Brussels should not feel overly confident with this short-term respite. While Le Pen is likely to lose the runoff election, she will remain a political force. If she somehow pulls off an upset win, the shock to the EU will be severe – perhaps fatal. Italy, however, may be the true test for the EU. Indeed, Italy may be the place where the fate of the European Union is decided.Continue Reading

The March for Science & the Reality of Dr. Lucy Jones

April 23, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Scientists begin from the assumption that there is an objective reality, independent of our hopes and desires.” – Dr. Lucy Jones

The March for Science took place on Saturday. Although billed as a non-partisan event, it was not. The movement was forced to update their website by changing multiple sections, including their statement on diversity. Here is the current statement:

“Inclusion, diversity, equity, and accessibility are integral to this mission and to our overall goals and principles. People have rightly pointed out that some of our own public communications, including social media posts, have not affirmed this stance. We hear your feedback and have been working to align our communications with our values. We are actively partnering with and seeking advice from organizations and individuals with expertise in this area. We cannot ignore issues of racism, sexism, homophobia, ableism, xenophobia, or any other form of discrimination in the discussion and implementation of science. Nor can we ignore the ways in which science has been misused to harm marginalized communities. The lack of inclusivity and diversity in STEM [Science, Technology, Engineering and Math] thwarts scientific advancements not only by limiting who conducts the research, but also by influencing what topics are studied, who participates in the research, and who will benefit from or be harmed by it.”

Bear in mind, the above reflects the March for Science’s adjusted and “de-politicized” statement.  Now, here are direct quotes – really, I’m serious – from the original statement:Continue Reading

Why Socialism Fails

April 20, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Democratic socialism is legalized theft in the name of the people against the vilified few. It is a battle against income inequality by means of collective immiseration. It is the subjugation of private enterprise and personal autonomy to government power.” – Bret Stephens

“To be a socialist is to submit the I to the thou; socialism is sacrificing the individual to the whole.” – Joseph Goebbels

In yet another move of socialist brilliance, the Venezuelan government of Maduro announced the seizure of the General Motors plant located in Valencia. GM immediately announced the layoff of the division’s 2,700 workers. Venezuela has seized more than 1,400 companies since the socialist rise to power in 1999 under Hugo Chavez. Almost all seized companies have ceased operation.

As noted by Ana Quintano, “forty years ago, Venezuela was the fourth richest nation, per capita, in the world. Today, its economy is collapsing. Such are the wages of Chavismo.”Continue Reading

Your Taxes – How They’re Spent, Some Budget Problems & Spending Gone Crazy

April 17, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

”Think of the federal government as a gigantic insurance company – with a sideline business in national defense and homeland security, which does its accounting on a cash basis. And an insurance company with cash accounting . . . is an accident waiting to happen.” – Peter Fisher – former U.S. Treasury Under-Secretary – Head of Domestic Finance

In advance of Tax Day I thought it an appropriate time to revisit how our federal taxes are utilized. How your tax payments are actually spent by the federal government, some very real problems we are facing and some examples of government spending gone awry.

But first, where do our federal tax revenues come from? Ultimately, they come from you and me. Individual income taxes account for 47% federal revenues. Payroll taxes account for another 34% of federal revenues. Corporate income taxes account for about 10% of federal revenues – a figure that often surprises many with its small percentage relative to income and payroll taxes. As discussed in Abolish the Corporate Tax, corporations are actually tax collectors – legal entities that serve to collect taxes on behalf of the corporation’s owners. Therefore, the true corporate taxpayers are the company’s shareholders – and perhaps, to some degree, labor and customers – not corporations. The remaining 9% comes from customs duties and excise taxes.

In fiscal year 2016 the federal government spent $3.95 trillion. About $2.7 trillion – more than two-thirds of total spending – went for social “insurance” (Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, unemployment compensation, veterans benefits). National defense spending equaled $600 billion or 15% of federal spending. Interest on our national debt equaled 6% of federal spending.Continue Reading

Russia’s Strategic Interest in Syria

April 12, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“One of the most important tasks is to broaden the energy supply … Energy determines today international security and social as well as economic development in many respects. In reality the well-being of millions of people is directly dependent in energy security.” – Vladimir Putin

“Qatar would like to see WJC (Bill Clinton) “for five minutes” in NYC, to present $1 million check that Qatar promised for WJC’s birthday in 2011.” – Amitabh Desai (Dir Foreign Policy – Clinton Foundation)

Russia has long supported Syria and the Assad regime – and has assisted Assad politically, financially and with military aid since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. On September 30, 2015, Russia officially joined the fight in Syria with a series of airstrikes. Prior to direct Russian intervention it had appeared the Assad regime would collapse. Fast-forward to the present. The rebel forces have lost and pro-Assad forces now control most major cities. ISIS remains in the less populated Syrian northeast.

So, why is Russia involved with Syria?Continue Reading

Trump’s Strategic Syrian Strike

April 8, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

President Trump announced the firing of 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syrian airbase targets in the wake of Sarin gas attacks – reportedly by the Assad Syrian government on its own civilians. I wondered at the motivations behind Assad’s use of Sarin. It simply did not seem to make sense. If anything, Assad had found himself moving back from the precipice edge. On March 30, 2017, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that Assad’s long-term status “will be decided by the Syrian people”. On the same day, Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stated “our priority is no longer to sit there and focus on getting Assad out”. So why would Assad take such an obviously regime-suicidal action? Was it actually a false flag attack from the Syrian ISIS rebels or the Russians?

I don’t know the answer but it also doesn’t really matter. Let’s step back for a moment.

As I wrote in The Syrian Cost of Obama’s Iran Deal:Continue Reading

The Suspicious Timing of Obama’s NSA Data-Sharing Order

April 4, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

On January 3, 2017, Section 2.3 of Executive Order 12333 – Procedures for the Availability or Dissemination of Raw Signals Intelligence Information by the NSA – was signed into effect. According to the New York Times:

“The new rules significantly relax longstanding limits on what the N.S.A. may do with the information gathered by its most powerful surveillance operations, which are largely unregulated by American wiretapping laws. These include collecting satellite transmissions, phone calls and emails that cross network switches abroad, and messages between people abroad that cross domestic network switches.”

Like many, I wondered at the timing of the order and possible ulterior motives on the part of the Obama White House. Why the pressing need to rush this order during the final days of his office? An order which allowed for significant expansion in the sharing of raw intelligence amongst agencies. Was it to enable dissemination of information gathered by those in the Obama Administration amongst intelligence agencies? But if so, why was the order not put into place earlier? Why just weeks before Trump officially assumed the Presidency?

In some ways, what I found particularly curious about this significant order is that it was so overdue.Continue Reading

Devin Nunes, Classified Intelligence & Schiff’s Political Pretense

April 2, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

You have to hand it to him. Adam Schiff has done a pretty good job of using outright, bald faced deception to make it sound like Devin Nunes has done something wrong – and that President Trump is therefore also guilty. But it’s starting to unravel.

Devin Nunes handled the whole info thing somewhat clumsily from a public perspective but he may well have had little choice.

Before you proceed further you may wish to revisit two earlier pieces; Wiretaps, Russians & the New York Times, and The Left’s Russian Hypocrisy.

Let’s start at the beginning.

Devin Nunes and Adam Schiff are both members of the Gang of Eight. The Gang of Eight is made up of the leaders of the Republican and Democratic parties from both the House and Senate, along with head members of House and Senate Intelligence Committees. Specifically, House and Senate members holding the following positions are automatically members of the Gang of Eight:Continue Reading

Liberal Causes & Sudden Insights – Why Facts Fail

March 29, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it” – Nancy Pelosi

Do you ever wonder why the Left always seems so unanimous? How Democrats seem to circle the wagons around their own while Republicans seem a more fractious bunch? I have been exploring the differences between the Left and the Right in general, and specifically in two earlier pieces, The Left and the Right – Shoulds and Coulds and Liberals, Conservatives and Fiscal Choices. Here are a few of the earlier thoughts I had on the matter:

Most on the Left start with good intentions and end in poor implementation.

Conservatives favor issues. Liberals favor causes.

Conservatives argue with logic. Liberals argue with emotion.

Conservatives are fiscally focused. Liberals are socially focused.

Conservatives think Government is the problem. Liberals think Government is the solution.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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