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Birth of an Administration

December 1, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Our nation’s best and brightest do not work in Washington.

Our best and brightest work in the private sector. They are on Wall Street and in the financial markets. They are CEO’s of companies. They are running hedge funds. They have created successful start-ups. They are collectors and managers of capital – both financial and human. They have no attraction for a traditional Washington and its hyperactive politics. They can deploy their skills far more successfully, and with far greater reward, in the free and open markets.

And yet they suddenly seem to be gravitating to Trump Tower – and that is of enormous benefit to our country’s future.

What do these folks have in common? They are all in jobs typically vilified by the left. They do not work in government. They are some of the smartest and most capable individuals this nation has to offer. They are driven.

Continue Reading

Dodd-Frank Must Go – or Getting Out of Dodd

November 30, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.” – Frederic Bastiat

“The Law of Unintended Consequences is a fact of life. Humans act when acted upon and generally in their own interest. People and markets adjust their behavior – often in ways not predicted or planned for.” – themarketswork

President Obama signed the Dodd-Frank legislation into law, all 2,300 pages of it, in 2010. The legislation was in response to the financial crisis of 2008 and was intended to decrease risks to our financial system and “promote financial stability”. Obama told the public Dodd-Frank would “lift our economy”. He also told us that the financial crisis of ’08 was the result of deregulation.

Sadly, the exact opposite was true. The financial crisis of ’08 – like so many before it – was the result of regulations – bad ones – implemented by Washington over many years.Continue Reading

Not Romney – Respect (Don’t Alienate) Your Base

November 26, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

You have made many good cabinet choices President Trump. General Michael Flynn – National Security Adviser, Jeff Sessions – Attorney General, Mike Pompeo – CIA Director, Nikki Haley – Ambassador to UN – all choices I applaud. And I would love to see Wilbur Ross get Commerce Secretary and would especially love to see Ret. Gen James Mattis become Defense Secretary.

Which brings us to the Secretary of State. In one sense I liked that you decided to bring Romney in. It showed you as a better man than your critics portrayed – a man willing to move past the election and all its harshness (see: Temperamentally Sound Choices). But then again, you had already done that with some other choices and meetings – Ted Cruz and Nikki Halley leap to mind.

What I liked about the Romney meeting was two-fold. One – it signaled that you were not going to simply gift the Secretary of State position to Giuliani for his campaign loyalty. I don’t think Rudy is particularly suited to the Secretary of State position myself – He’s more an attack dog than diplomat by nature. Two – it signaled to the nation that you wanted to be a president of unity and were willing to try to move past pettiness and small-minded revenge.

BUT…Continue Reading

A Republic to be Thankful for

November 23, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Sometimes we need to pause for a moment to remember – to allow ourselves to be reminded of all that is good in our lives.

There’s always much to be thankful for.

Like most, I’m grateful for my family and loved ones – my children, my parents, my partner and her family.

But it goes further – deeper.

I am grateful for the ability to wonder, to question, to grow and explore. I am grateful for the ability to speak my mind and engage in debate. I am grateful for the gift of critical thinking. And I am grateful for this country that helped make these things possible for so many people.

I am grateful for the freedom given to me by others.Continue Reading

The Fifth Article

November 22, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The recent movement to call a convention to propose amendments…has sown consternation in Washington–precisely because it is the one device that can effectively bypass the Washington bureaucracy.”

– Milton Friedman

“We must rely on the states to force Congress to act on our amendment. Our Nation’s Founders gave us the means to amend the Constitution through action of state legislators. That is the only strategy that will work.”

– Ronald Reagan

“The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress.”

– United States Constitution, Article 5Continue Reading

Exploring Federalism

November 19, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The States can best govern our home concerns, and the General Government our foreign ones. I wish, therefore…never to see all offices transferred to Washington, where, further withdrawn from the eyes of the people, they may be more secretly be bought and sold as at market.”

– Thomas Jefferson

Our nation has experienced a complicated and ever-evolving relationship between our central (federal) government and our state governments. There are three broad approaches to division of powers between state and national governments; Unitary, Confederal and Federal.

Unitary systems are governments whereby virtually all power is consolidated at the central or national level.

Confederal systems are at the opposite end of the spectrum – where virtually all decision-making power is pushed out to the state level. The national government’s primary purpose is to serve as the mechanism that keeps states loosely bound to each other. Said another way, under Confederal systems each state keeps its own sovereign rights – and can secede.

Federal systems lie somewhere in the middle – and cover a broad spectrum of definitions. Federalism divides powers between state and national governments. Each level of government is independent and each level has its own set of powers and responsibilities. In its truest form, Federalism divides powers between national government and states in such a way that both levels are lawfully regarded as having equal stature or parity. In practice, the national government often attempts to consolidate power and ends up being supreme to state governments.

The system chosen by our founding fathers was a Federal system – one that retained a large amount of power at the state level and away from the central government.Continue Reading

Temperamentally Sound Choices

November 17, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

For a man whose temperament supposedly made him “unfit for office” President-elect Trump seems to be moving forward on his cabinet selections in a measured, thoughtful pace that should serve as a warning to his critics and foes alike.

My initial reaction to hearing Giuliani mentioned as secretary of state was tepid at best – I thought he would be fine as Attorney General but Rudy apparently turned that post down. I was less excited about him as Secretary of State. The position and the man didn’t feel like a match. That being said, I was also sure he would simply be given the post he wanted as a reward for his campaign service. Now it’s being reported that there are numerous candidates for that post – including Mitt Romney and South Carolina Gov Nikki Haley. It was not a simple gimme for Rudy although he might still get it. My point here is not to speculate on possible nominations but rather to stop and note what the process indicates for the future.

“For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people. . . I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country.”  – President-Elect Trump (from his Victory Speech)Continue Reading

Repeal the 17th Amendment

November 16, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“It is not by the consolidation, or concentration, of powers, but by their distribution, that good government is effected.” – Thomas Jefferson

A few days back I made a case for the Electoral College and why we should respect and be grateful for its existence (see: The Electoral College Balance). Essentially, it all boils down to preserving individual and state rights against the natural tendency towards consolidation of power at the national level.

Diffusion of power is good.

Diffusion of power – or separation of power – is one of the most fundamental tenets of our great Constitution. When power is consolidated in the hands of the few the needs of the many are ignored. The founding fathers recognized this great trap and sought to put in place lasting safeguards against the natural tendency of the national government to gain undue political power. It is the very reason we are a Republic as opposed to a Democracy (technically a dictatorship by the majority). We are a Republic with Constitutionally Limited Government.Continue Reading

The Renaissance of the Right

November 15, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The full enormity of what is happening within the GOP and Washington is just beginning to sink in, the possibilities just beginning to take hold.

A glimmer into what’s coming was revealed last night when Newt Gingrich, in talking about what position he might want in a Trump Administration, calmly and matter-of-factly uttered these words;

“I want to be the general planner, looking out over the next eight years, and trying to design how we fundamentally reshape the federal government”

“and that’s a very broad job. The closest analogy probably would be Harry Hopkins and the work he did for Franklin Delano Roosevelt”.

And that was the moment I began to truly grasp how enormously fundamental this structural change will be.Continue Reading

The Electoral College Balance

November 13, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Please pardon the quotes – they have real relevance to the short discussion that follows

“A pure democracy…can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will…be felt by a majority of the whole…and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party…Hence it is that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention…and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.”

– James Madison (Federalist Papers)

“Democracy… while it lasts is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy. Remember, democracy never lasts long…There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.”

– John Adams

“A republic, by which I mean a government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect, and promises the cure for which we are seeking.”

– John AdamsContinue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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