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A Republic to be Thankful for

November 23, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Sometimes we need to pause for a moment to remember – to allow ourselves to be reminded of all that is good in our lives.

There’s always much to be thankful for.

Like most, I’m grateful for my family and loved ones – my children, my parents, my partner and her family.

But it goes further – deeper.

I am grateful for the ability to wonder, to question, to grow and explore. I am grateful for the ability to speak my mind and engage in debate. I am grateful for the gift of critical thinking. And I am grateful for this country that helped make these things possible for so many people.

I am grateful for the freedom given to me by others.Continue Reading

The Fifth Article

November 22, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The recent movement to call a convention to propose amendments…has sown consternation in Washington–precisely because it is the one device that can effectively bypass the Washington bureaucracy.”

– Milton Friedman

“We must rely on the states to force Congress to act on our amendment. Our Nation’s Founders gave us the means to amend the Constitution through action of state legislators. That is the only strategy that will work.”

– Ronald Reagan

“The Congress, whenever two thirds of both houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose amendments to this Constitution, or, on the application of the legislatures of two thirds of the several states, shall call a convention for proposing amendments, which, in either case, shall be valid to all intents and purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the legislatures of three fourths of the several states, or by conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other mode of ratification may be proposed by the Congress.”

– United States Constitution, Article 5Continue Reading

Exploring Federalism

November 19, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The States can best govern our home concerns, and the General Government our foreign ones. I wish, therefore…never to see all offices transferred to Washington, where, further withdrawn from the eyes of the people, they may be more secretly be bought and sold as at market.”

– Thomas Jefferson

Our nation has experienced a complicated and ever-evolving relationship between our central (federal) government and our state governments. There are three broad approaches to division of powers between state and national governments; Unitary, Confederal and Federal.

Unitary systems are governments whereby virtually all power is consolidated at the central or national level.

Confederal systems are at the opposite end of the spectrum – where virtually all decision-making power is pushed out to the state level. The national government’s primary purpose is to serve as the mechanism that keeps states loosely bound to each other. Said another way, under Confederal systems each state keeps its own sovereign rights – and can secede.

Federal systems lie somewhere in the middle – and cover a broad spectrum of definitions. Federalism divides powers between state and national governments. Each level of government is independent and each level has its own set of powers and responsibilities. In its truest form, Federalism divides powers between national government and states in such a way that both levels are lawfully regarded as having equal stature or parity. In practice, the national government often attempts to consolidate power and ends up being supreme to state governments.

The system chosen by our founding fathers was a Federal system – one that retained a large amount of power at the state level and away from the central government.Continue Reading

Temperamentally Sound Choices

November 17, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

For a man whose temperament supposedly made him “unfit for office” President-elect Trump seems to be moving forward on his cabinet selections in a measured, thoughtful pace that should serve as a warning to his critics and foes alike.

My initial reaction to hearing Giuliani mentioned as secretary of state was tepid at best – I thought he would be fine as Attorney General but Rudy apparently turned that post down. I was less excited about him as Secretary of State. The position and the man didn’t feel like a match. That being said, I was also sure he would simply be given the post he wanted as a reward for his campaign service. Now it’s being reported that there are numerous candidates for that post – including Mitt Romney and South Carolina Gov Nikki Haley. It was not a simple gimme for Rudy although he might still get it. My point here is not to speculate on possible nominations but rather to stop and note what the process indicates for the future.

“For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people. . . I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country.”  – President-Elect Trump (from his Victory Speech)Continue Reading

Repeal the 17th Amendment

November 16, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“It is not by the consolidation, or concentration, of powers, but by their distribution, that good government is effected.” – Thomas Jefferson

A few days back I made a case for the Electoral College and why we should respect and be grateful for its existence (see: The Electoral College Balance). Essentially, it all boils down to preserving individual and state rights against the natural tendency towards consolidation of power at the national level.

Diffusion of power is good.

Diffusion of power – or separation of power – is one of the most fundamental tenets of our great Constitution. When power is consolidated in the hands of the few the needs of the many are ignored. The founding fathers recognized this great trap and sought to put in place lasting safeguards against the natural tendency of the national government to gain undue political power. It is the very reason we are a Republic as opposed to a Democracy (technically a dictatorship by the majority). We are a Republic with Constitutionally Limited Government.Continue Reading

The Renaissance of the Right

November 15, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The full enormity of what is happening within the GOP and Washington is just beginning to sink in, the possibilities just beginning to take hold.

A glimmer into what’s coming was revealed last night when Newt Gingrich, in talking about what position he might want in a Trump Administration, calmly and matter-of-factly uttered these words;

“I want to be the general planner, looking out over the next eight years, and trying to design how we fundamentally reshape the federal government”

“and that’s a very broad job. The closest analogy probably would be Harry Hopkins and the work he did for Franklin Delano Roosevelt”.

And that was the moment I began to truly grasp how enormously fundamental this structural change will be.Continue Reading

The Electoral College Balance

November 13, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Please pardon the quotes – they have real relevance to the short discussion that follows

“A pure democracy…can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction. A common passion or interest will…be felt by a majority of the whole…and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party…Hence it is that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention…and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.”

– James Madison (Federalist Papers)

“Democracy… while it lasts is more bloody than either aristocracy or monarchy. Remember, democracy never lasts long…There is never a democracy that did not commit suicide.”

– John Adams

“A republic, by which I mean a government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect, and promises the cure for which we are seeking.”

– John AdamsContinue Reading

A Fool and His Legacy are Soon Parted

November 11, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

There are two views of President Obama.

He is one of the greatest Presidents in modern history.

He is the worst President in modern history.

 

Here’s my view on Obama:

Thinks lectures are a “good time”.

Gets paid by the word.Continue Reading

The Death of Discourse or Why Liberals Lost

November 11, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

 

Have you tried holding a calm, rational discussion with your democratic friends over why you supported Trump?

Impossible.

Have you tried to hold a calm, rational discussion with those same friends over why you opposed Hillary?

Easy.

And somehow, the Democrat Party managed to ignore that simple fact. Lots of voters could not stand Trump. But they would refuse to defend Hillary.

And that’s part of the reason why liberals lost. But it’s not the entire reason.Continue Reading

Reversal of Fortune

November 10, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

It’s hard to know where to start.

How to put things in perspective? So very much has changed in such a short space of time. Even when it was so very long in coming.

The financial markets have responded to Trump’s election with a thunderous roar of approval. The equity markets have been on fire  – the Dow Jones is up 5% for the week and closed at a new high. Bonds got rocked with the yield rising to 2.12% on the 10-year Treasury in anticipation of future economic growth and inflation (bear in mind the Fed’s target rate for inflation is 2% – some inflation is healthy). Investors are cheering the prospects of actual economic growth – along with an end to the perpetual Federal Reserve quantitative easing – that comes with tax cuts, a fiscal stimulus plan and…regulatory rollback. There is the very real possibility that we will get a repeal of the truly awful Dodd-Frank Act.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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