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Trump’s Strategic Syrian Strike

April 8, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

President Trump announced the firing of 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syrian airbase targets in the wake of Sarin gas attacks – reportedly by the Assad Syrian government on its own civilians. I wondered at the motivations behind Assad’s use of Sarin. It simply did not seem to make sense. If anything, Assad had found himself moving back from the precipice edge. On March 30, 2017, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that Assad’s long-term status “will be decided by the Syrian people”. On the same day, Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stated “our priority is no longer to sit there and focus on getting Assad out”. So why would Assad take such an obviously regime-suicidal action? Was it actually a false flag attack from the Syrian ISIS rebels or the Russians?

I don’t know the answer but it also doesn’t really matter. Let’s step back for a moment.

As I wrote in The Syrian Cost of Obama’s Iran Deal:Continue Reading

A Destination-Based Tax & the Border Adjustment

February 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The United States utilizes a “Worldwide” tax code – and that’s a problem.

Most other nations use a “Territorial” tax system – companies are taxed by the country where the economic activity takes place. This territorial system is better suited to the multi-national landscape companies operate in today – which is why all other G-7 nations use the “territorial” approach. Under a territorial system, a multi-national company pays taxes to each of the nations it does business in according to the amount of economic activity done in each nation’s borders and according to the particular nation’s tax rate. This has the obvious advantage of placing all companies operating within a given nation on the same economic footing from a tax burden perspective. Under our current Worldwide system, U.S. corporations are taxed at the same 35% federal tax rate – less taxes paid to foreign governments and allowed deductibles – no matter where their profits are made.Continue Reading

Trump’s Travel Ban & Media Lies

January 30, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In order to protect Americans, the United States must ensure that those admitted to this country do not bear hostile attitudes toward it and its founding principles.  The United States cannot, and should not, admit those who do not support the Constitution, or those who would place violent ideologies over American law. – President Trump – Executive Order

It is the policy of the United States to protect its citizens from foreign nationals who intend to commit terrorist attacks in the United States; and to prevent the admission of foreign nationals who intend to exploit United States immigration laws for malevolent purposes.” – President Trump – Executive Order

President Trump issued an Executive Order that laid out a Travel Ban on seven nations on January 27, 2016. Outrage ensued.

The United States had 325,000 foreign visitors land on U.S. soil in the 24 hours after the Travel Ban was issued. 109 were detained. All were released.

Directly stated, President Trump’s Travel Ban impacted .003% of all foreign travelers in the first 24 hours in which it was enacted.Continue Reading

De-Funding the United Nations

January 1, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The United Nations (UN) was created in 1945 as a replacement for the ineffectual League of Nations. Membership was originally comprised of 51 nations – today there are 193 member nations. The UN has five primary organizational branches: the General Assembly, the Security Council, the Economic and Social Council, the Secretariat and the International Court of Justice (a sixth branch – the Trusteeship Council – has been inactive since 1994). These five branches comprise the “core” United Nations. The UN also has numerous agencies that are often autonomous or semi-autonomous. These agencies include the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Food Program, the Education, Scientific and Cultural Foundation (UNESCO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Continue Reading

Obama’s Betrayal of Israel

December 29, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Israel can either be Jewish or democratic – it cannot be both” – John Kerry

“The entire Middle East is going up in flames, entire countries are toppling, terrorism is raging and for an entire hour the secretary of state attacks the only democracy in the Middle East.” – Benjamin Netanyahu

“There are roughly 50 majority-Muslim countries in the world. There is one — only one — Jewish state. The Israeli Knesset has 17 elected Arab members. It has Muslim members and Christian members. In contrast, one searches in vain for Muslim countries that have elected Jewish representatives. Obama and Kerry choose to attack the only inclusive democracy in the Middle East, while turning a blind eye to the Islamic terrorism that grows daily.” – Ted Cruz

Continue Reading

The Syrian Cost of Obama’s Iran Deal

December 23, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized.” – President Barack Hussein Obama – August 20, 2012

On July 14, 2015, six world powers – United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom, France and Germany – reached an agreement with Iran on Iran’s Nuclear Program. When Obama decided to assume personal leadership of the Iran nuclear negotiations, the Iranian economy was straining under a decades old series of economic sanctions. Rather than support Congressional wishes to further tighten sanctions, thereby maintaining pressure on the ruling Mullahs, Obama decided to loosen economic restrictions as a prelude to his negotiations. The Iranian economy began growing again in 2014 and so did Iran’s negotiating power. And so, in 2015, the U.S. signed a deal with Iran that allowed the Iranians to hide much of their nuclear activities, lacked any semblance of enforcement and penalties, ended all economic sanctions, ended embargoes on ballistic missiles – and begins to expire in ten years – on January 2027 Iran can replace and upgrade its centrifuges. Obama himself has admitted that Iran will have full nuclear capability almost immediately after the deal expires. And for this we gave the Iranians access to almost $120 billion – perhaps more – Iran itself says it has already accessed $100 billion. It has been called the worst agreement in diplomatic history.Continue Reading

Populism – The Road Back to Capitalism

December 6, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Many observers have noted that populism is inherent to representative democracy; after all, do populists not juxtapose ‘the pure people’ against ‘the corrupt elite’?” Cas Mudde

Consider these statements I am going to put forth and see if you agree.

  • Globalism is a political goal – not an economic one.
  • Globalism is not the same as Global Integration.
  • Populism is a generalized term to describe the responses by citizens across the world to the failures of their various political parties.
  • What was once called Sovereignty is now dismissed as Populism.
  • Populism is a rightful response against centralized government and central decision-making.
  • Populism is labeled as a movement against free markets and yet the exact opposite is true.
  • Globalism hinders free trade.
  • Globalism begets Socialism.
  • Populism begets Capitalism.

Continue Reading

The Euro’s Failings

December 5, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

I remember when the European Union, and the creation of the Euro, was being discussed and formulated. I was sitting in an economics class in college.

The European Union would be the culmination of a series of efforts to unify Western Europe – starting in 1951 with the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and later, the 1957 creation of the European Economic Community (EEC) – which removed many barriers of trade between member nations. Over time, the EEC added additional European nations and expanded its influence and scale. Fast forward to 1987 and the creation of the Single European Act (SEA) which strengthened both legal and foreign policy influence and concentrated the decision-making power of the EEC. It also established a timetable of 1992 for the completion of a common market. And thus, the Maastricht Treaty was signed on February 7, 1992 and formally created the European Union (EU) – it also called for a common currency – the yet to be named Euro.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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