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Trump’s Strategic Syrian Strike

April 8, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

President Trump announced the firing of 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syrian airbase targets in the wake of Sarin gas attacks – reportedly by the Assad Syrian government on its own civilians. I wondered at the motivations behind Assad’s use of Sarin. It simply did not seem to make sense. If anything, Assad had found himself moving back from the precipice edge. On March 30, 2017, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated that Assad’s long-term status “will be decided by the Syrian people”. On the same day, Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stated “our priority is no longer to sit there and focus on getting Assad out”. So why would Assad take such an obviously regime-suicidal action? Was it actually a false flag attack from the Syrian ISIS rebels or the Russians?

I don’t know the answer but it also doesn’t really matter. Let’s step back for a moment.

As I wrote in The Syrian Cost of Obama’s Iran Deal:Continue Reading

Climate Change Debate – Politics, False Consensus, Questionable Science & Some Questions

March 24, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science.” – Richard Feynman

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.” – Galileo Galilei

“The debate is settled. Climate change is a fact” – Barack Obama

There is a certain purity to science. The Scientific Method – elegant in its simplicity and maddening in its application – lays down the path to knowledge:Continue Reading

The Department of Justice’s Slush Fund

March 2, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

News of a Department of Justice “Slush Fund” has been making headlines recently.

Unfortunately, this is not new information – the activity goes back to 2012 and can be traced to The Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Working Group (Working Group), created in 2012 by none other than Obama’s first Attorney General, Eric Holder. Let’s just say that I view Mr. Holder as “ethically-challenged”.

The Working Group was created within the Justice Department in 2012 as a means of prosecution and punishment for those perceived to be responsible for the financial crisis of 2008. At its formation Mr. Holder made the following statement:Continue Reading

A Destination-Based Tax & the Border Adjustment

February 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The United States utilizes a “Worldwide” tax code – and that’s a problem.

Most other nations use a “Territorial” tax system – companies are taxed by the country where the economic activity takes place. This territorial system is better suited to the multi-national landscape companies operate in today – which is why all other G-7 nations use the “territorial” approach. Under a territorial system, a multi-national company pays taxes to each of the nations it does business in according to the amount of economic activity done in each nation’s borders and according to the particular nation’s tax rate. This has the obvious advantage of placing all companies operating within a given nation on the same economic footing from a tax burden perspective. Under our current Worldwide system, U.S. corporations are taxed at the same 35% federal tax rate – less taxes paid to foreign governments and allowed deductibles – no matter where their profits are made.Continue Reading

Pendleton Act – Federal Employment for Life

February 17, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The Spoils System has been around as long as politics – to the victor goes the spoils – political appointments. President George Washington attempted to push back on this effect during his two terms as President. He utilized “fitness of character” as the primary litmus test for government employees. Washington’s efforts were noble in practice, but under subsequent Presidencies many desired positions in government were simply being paid for through bribes. The election of Andrew Jackson brought about a reversal, as Jackson employed a completely partisan approach to staffing. The stated motivation was to ensure a more representative cross section of government employees – not just the rich and powerful. And so the Spoils System became the official staffing policy in our government. And the level of corruption was exactly the same as before – and perhaps even intensified.Continue Reading

Congressional Review Act – A Regulatory Killer

February 1, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A little-known law has suddenly been getting a lot of attention in our nation’s Capital. The Congressional Review Act (CRA) – put into law in 1996 as part of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America – is an oversight tool that Congress may use to overturn a rule issued by a federal agency.

The CRA was put into law as a means for Congress to oversee and control regulations issued by agencies, yet it has only been successfully used one time – during the start of the Bush Administration. The reason for this is simple. The law requires a Presidential signature for final approval – or a veto. A sitting president is unlikely to sign a resolution overturning regulations issued by his own agency and would therefore veto any CRA resolution passed by Congress.

The CRA applies to rules implemented in the last sixty legislative working days.

The Obama Administration issued literally tens of thousands of regulations (see: Trump’s Deregulation Gift). The 2016 Federal Register (the daily depository of rules and regulations) contains 97,110 pages, the highest page count in its history – dwarfing the previous record set in 2010 (also Obama) of 81,405. The Federal Register page count stood at 81,640 at the start of December 2016 when I wrote the Trump deregulation article – 15,470 pages were added in the last month of 2016 alone. There has never been a time more primed for the revival of the Congressional Review Act.Continue Reading

Trump’s Travel Ban & Media Lies

January 30, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In order to protect Americans, the United States must ensure that those admitted to this country do not bear hostile attitudes toward it and its founding principles.  The United States cannot, and should not, admit those who do not support the Constitution, or those who would place violent ideologies over American law. – President Trump – Executive Order

It is the policy of the United States to protect its citizens from foreign nationals who intend to commit terrorist attacks in the United States; and to prevent the admission of foreign nationals who intend to exploit United States immigration laws for malevolent purposes.” – President Trump – Executive Order

President Trump issued an Executive Order that laid out a Travel Ban on seven nations on January 27, 2016. Outrage ensued.

The United States had 325,000 foreign visitors land on U.S. soil in the 24 hours after the Travel Ban was issued. 109 were detained. All were released.

Directly stated, President Trump’s Travel Ban impacted .003% of all foreign travelers in the first 24 hours in which it was enacted.Continue Reading

A Voter Fraud-Friendly Environment

January 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“No doubt realizing that he was losing the cable-news message war, President Trump has called for a witch hunt in an attempt to prove the voter fraud lie he has been telling himself about why he lost the popular vote in November.” – There’s a Reason Trump Keeps Lying About Voter Fraud – The Washington Post – Jason Kander

“There are varying degrees of absurdity in the fallacies President Trump peddled during his first week in the Oval Office. Perhaps the most damaging was his insistence that millions of Americans voted illegally in the election he narrowly won.” – The Voter Fraud Fantasy – NY Times Editorial Board

Democrats are out in force stating that Voter Fraud and illegal voting is not only non-existent – it is a lie – an attempt to undermine our Democracy.

Now consider the following voting requirements by state as detailed by the National Conference of State Legislatures (National Map included):Continue Reading

Trump’s Independent Cabinet

January 14, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“I want them to be themselves and express their own thoughts, not mine!”

“I told them, ‘Be yourself and say what you want to say. Don’t worry about me.'”

“I’m going to do the right thing, whatever it is. I may be right, they may be right. But I said, ‘Be yourself.'”

– President-Elect Trump on his Cabinet Nominees

With these words President-Elect Trump sent his cabinet nominees off to their respective Senate Confirmation Hearings. And Trump appears to have meant what he said as there were some notably divergent views expressed from his nominees.Continue Reading

Term Limits or Bust

January 12, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

While watching the various Senate Confirmation Hearings I found one short phrase constantly repeating itself in my head.

Term Limits… Term Limits… Term Limits…

John Conyers, House Member from Michigan, is the longest serving current Congressman. He has held his position for…52 years. The record holder, John Dingell, retired late last year with 59 years of “service”. Fourteen current members of Congress have held their posts for 36 years or longer. The average tenure at the start of the 114th Congress was 8.8 years for House Members and 9.7 years for the Senate – but these numbers are low as they do not count years of service by members of the Senate when they were members in the House and vice versa. And 53 of our 100 Senators were House Members before they became Senators. These numbers also do not capture how many Congressmen are effectively career politicians – having risen to their Congressional Membership through positions as political aides, lobbyists or by holding other political office.

You get the point.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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