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CNN, Free Speech & Reddit – A Self-Destruction in Real-Time

July 7, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

The First Amendment of the Constitution is surprisingly short. It also applies only to restrictions against government actions. “Congress shall make no law…”

Over the years, courts have expanded the Free Speech interpretation of the First Amendment to apply against state and local governments in addition to the federal level. BUT – the First Amendment does not apply against companies, organizations or individuals.

In other words, CNN political analyst Kirsten Powers was correct when she noted that, “News organizations cannot violate a person’s First Amendment Rights”.Continue Reading

Russian Dolls – A NYT Correction & An Intelligence Fabrication

June 30, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

An interesting correction appeared in the New York Times from a Maggie Haberman article on June 25th. I missed the actual correction but was alerted to it by a later article on the matter.

Part of what made the correction interesting was the manner in which the article was rewritten – done in a fashion that made it difficult to see where the correction actually applied – thereby attempting to render the whole correction moot.

Equally interesting was how the correction glossed over the makeup of our intelligence agencies – and inadvertently exposed how the Times – and almost every other news organization – exaggerated the role of the intelligence agencies in promoting the notion of Russian Collusion. It also highlights the roles played by the intelligence agencies actually involved:Continue Reading

Trump’s Supreme Court Victory

June 26, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The Supreme Court granted President Trump what amounts to a crucial, although partial, stay of lesser court rulings on the Administration’s Travel Ban. The ruling was unanimous at 9-0. I have previously written on the Travel Ban, and, like many, am unsurprised at the ruling. The court will take up the case in October when it reconvenes – maybe.

You can find the full ruling by the Supreme Court here.

But first, it’s worth recalling exactly what the Travel Ban was attempting to accomplish. The second Executive Order’s Travel Ban contains four significant pronouncements:

  1. Directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to conduct a global review to determine whether foreign governments provide adequate information about nationals applying for United States visas.
  2. Directs that entry of nationals from six countries – Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen – be suspended for 90 days from the effective date of the order.
  3. Suspends the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) for 120 days following its effective date.
  4. Citing the President’s determination that “the entry of more than 50,000 refugees in fiscal year 2017 would be detrimental to the interests of the United States,” the order suspends any entries in excess of that number for fiscal 2017.

Continue Reading

13 Demands for Qatar

June 23, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued what can only be described as an onerous list of thirteen demands to Qatar. I previously wrote about the GCC’s cutting of ties with Qatar – and the unprecedented level of GCC coordination and cooperation from such an action.

The Middle East has realigned dramatically, dividing itself between those regimes who support extremism and those who oppose it. The GCC, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have chosen to stand against extremism. Iran – and Turkey – have chosen otherwise.

Qatar – a member of the GCC – has quietly, yet consistently, chosen to align itself with extremists – particularly the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar supported the extremist factions in Syria throughout the civil war. And Qatar has subtly aligned itself with Iran – in direct opposition to the Saudi/Egypt led efforts to align Arab nations against the Iranian regime.

The allied GCC Arab nations want an end to Qatari interference in domestic politics, an end to support for extremism – and a strong unified GCC stance against Iran.Continue Reading

James Comey & Questions That Linger

June 12, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“If I find out that people were leaking information about our investigation, whether to reporters or private parties, there will be severe consequences.” – James Comey – May 3 2017

James Comey released a surprisingly detailed Opening Statement the day before his infamous hearing. I discuss it here. It was so detailed that many predicted Comey’s actual testimony would prove to be a non-event. That view was not entirely accurate. Comey’s actual testimony proved to be a layered affair. There were the first impressions, then some deeper takeaways – and then further questions. I cover Comey’s testimony here. In it I discuss some serious timeline inconsistencies – and some inconsistencies in how he handled this affair versus the Clinton Criminal Investigation.

Despite the analysis, nagging questions remain. Questions that I do not have immediate answers to.Continue Reading

The Timeline Problems of James Comey’s Testimony

June 8, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

FBI Director James Comey delivered his long-awaited testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee today. There are at least two significant timeline issues with Comey’s testimony.

Marco Rubio’s questioning summed up the hearing succinctly and in the most salient manner:

RUBIO: What it comes down to is the president asked three things of you. Asked for your loyalty. You said you’d be loyally honest.

COMEY: Honestly loyal.

RUBIO: Honestly loyal. He asked you on one occasion to let the Mike Flynn thing go because he was a good guy. By the way, you’re aware he said the same thing in the press the next day. He is a good guy, treated unfairly, et cetera. I imagine your FBI agents read that.

COMEY: I’m sure they did.Continue Reading

Comey’s Statement & His Political Undermining of President Trump

June 7, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Former FBI Director James Comey released his opening statement ahead of his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on June 8 2017. My assessment follows the highlights of Comey’s statement.

Comey notes nine one-on-one interactions – three in person and six on the phone – with President Trump but highlights only five. He states:

January 6 2017:

on January 6 2017, he informed President Trump that he was not under investigation – without President Trump asking him about the matter.

he documented his first conversation with President Trump on a laptop immediately after the meeting.

he decided to create written records of conversations with President Trump from that point forward.

he did not engage in this practice with others – including written documentation of conversations with Obama – of which he says there were only two in eight years.

the FBI Investigation is a counter-intelligence investigation – not a criminal one.Continue Reading

Trump’s Middle East Speech & the GCC’s Rebuke of Qatar

June 5, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, the Maldives, Yemen and Libya have all announced they are cutting ties with Qatar. The countries have ordered their citizens out of Qatar and have given Qatari citizens residing in their countries fourteen days to return to Qatar. Qatari diplomats are being ejected immediately – within 48 hours. Air travel is restricted immediately and land routes are being blocked.

In a closely coordinated move, Bahrain was the first to break ties with Qatar, followed quickly by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and the Maldives.

At this point, Kuwait and Oman are the only members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that have retained ties with Qatar (also a GCC member). Don’t be surprised if these countries join as well.

At the risk of understatement, this is significant news – and represents an unprecedented level of coordination between the Arab nations.Continue Reading

Three Subpoenas – Unmasking the Unmaskers

June 1, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that seven subpoenas were issued by the House Intelligence Committee.

Four of the Subpoenas were for Mike Flynn and President Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen – one for each man and one for their respective companies. According to Fox News, these four subpoenas were “issued at behest of the committee’s ranking Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), and were said to be duplicative of subpoenas already issued by the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is conducting a parallel probe”. As such they are not the real story – indeed, they were almost certainly issued by Schiff as a distraction from the real story.Continue Reading

John Brennan Heads for the Exits

May 25, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

CIA Director John Brennan testified before the full House Intelligence Committee on May 23, 2017. And judging from his opening statements, Mr. Brennan had closely watched former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony on March 20th 2017.

The full video of Brennan’s testimony is below (transcript here). I will highlight some key moments:Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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