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Why We’re Unlikely to See an October Surprise

October 29, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

There are several material investigations underway, most notably that of Department of Justice (DOJ) Inspector General Michael Horowitz and special counsel Robert Mueller.

Horowitz is looking into alleged FISA abuses on the part of the FBI, DOJ, and others, while Mueller is continuing the FBI’s investigation into alleged collusion between Russia and President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.Continue Reading

End in Sight for Mueller Probe With No Evidence of Trump-Collusion Found So Far

October 25, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller appears to finally coming to an end.

“Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to issue findings on core aspects of his Russia probe soon after the November midterm elections as he faces intensifying pressure to produce more indictments or shut down his investigation,” Bloomberg reported on Oct. 17 citing two U.S. officials, adding that “[Deputy Attorney General Rod] Rosenstein has made it clear that he wants Mueller to wrap up the investigation as expeditiously as possible.”

As a further indication of an investigative wind-down, four of Mueller’s prosecutors have left the special counsel’s office in recent months.Continue Reading

Why Was the Rosenstein Interview Postponed?

October 25, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A classified interview with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein that was planned for Oct. 24 has been postponed indefinitely, the chairmen of two congressional committees announced.

An announcement about the postponement was made jointly Oct. 23 by House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.):

“The Committees are unable to ask all questions of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein within the time allotted for tomorrow’s transcribed interview, therefore, the interview will be postponed. Mr. Rosenstein has indicated his willingness to testify before the Judiciary and Oversight committees in the coming weeks, in either a transcribed interview or a public setting. We appreciate his willingness to appear and will announce further details once it has been rescheduled,” the statement read.Continue Reading

Rosenstein’s Classified Interview

October 21, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Last week, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.) announced that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein was meeting with them on Oct. 24 for a transcribed interview along with Ranking Members Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and Elijah Cummings (D-Md.).

As noted in the press release, the interview will be conducted in a secure setting so “all relevant questions can be asked and answered without regard to classification.”

Additionally, the interview will be under oath. The transcript will then be reviewed by the Intelligence Community “to avoid the public dissemination of classified or otherwise protected information.” Upon completion of the clearance process, the transcript will be publicly available.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the special counsel probe by Robert Mueller appears to be winding down.Continue Reading

New FBI Court Documents Provide Additional Insights into Carter Page FISA

October 20, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

On October 21, 2016, the FBI sought and received a Title I FISA Warrant on Trump foreign policy advisor Carter Page. Three subsequent FISA renewals were sought and surveillance continued on Page until September 2017.

The DOJ released 412 pages of the Page FISA Surveillance Court Orders and Applications on July 21, 2018. Large sections of the documents were redacted and many pages were completely blacked out.

In response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit by the James Madison Project, the FBI and DOJ filed a lengthy court document, Defendant’s Motion for Summary Judgment, on October 19, 2018, that provides a significant amount of new information.Continue Reading

Why is Glenn Simpson Invoking the First Amendment?

October 20, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

On Oct. 16, 2018, Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson reportedly invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. Simpson had been subpoenaed to appear before a joint House panel for a closed-door interview. Largely overlooked is that Simpson also invoked his First Amendment right to freedom of speech and freedom of association.

Fusion GPS is the firm that commissioned the dossier produced by former MI6 Agent Christopher Steele. The firm also employed Nellie Ohr, the wife of former Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce Ohr.

There are some obvious reasons why Simpson might plead the Fifth.Continue Reading

NSA Director Rogers Disclosed FISA Abuse Days After Page Warrant Was Issued

October 18, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

On March 9, 2016, Department of Justice (DOJ) oversight personnel learned that the FBI had been employing outside contractors who had access to raw Section 702 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) data, and retained that access after their work for the FBI was completed.

This information was disclosed in a 99-page FISA court ruling on April 26, 2017, that was declassified by Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats.

That wasn’t an isolated incident and the improper access granted to outside contractors “seems to have been the result of deliberate decisionmaking” (footnote – page 87).Continue Reading

Clinton, 5 ‘Researchers’ Had Clearances Revoked; State Department Continues Email Probe

October 16, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Revocation of security clearances highlights concerns they were used for political purposes

The security clearances of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and five other individuals, who had been designated as “researchers”—including Clinton’s longtime lawyer, Cheryl Mills—were withdrawn between August and September.

Clinton’s security clearance was withdrawn at her request, according to a statement by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), citing State Department information.

Ongoing active clearances by Clinton and her associates could eventually be connected to evidence uncovered by the House Intelligence Committee of the use of information “to achieve partisan political purposes.”Continue Reading

Spygate: The True Story of Collusion

October 12, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

How America’s most powerful agencies were weaponized against President Donald Trump

Although the details remain complex, the structure underlying Spygate—the creation of the false narrative that candidate Donald Trump colluded with Russia, and the spying on his presidential campaign—remains surprisingly simple:Continue Reading

The Running Battle Between Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and Andrew McCabe

October 10, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein has proven himself a polarizing figure. Depending on who you speak to, Rosenstein, appears to occupy one of three rather varying roles.

According to some, Rosenstein is part of the problem, actively working against President Trump’s Administration. To others, he occupies a slightly more grey area, compromised but with the capability to adjust to a new political climate. Not actively bad, but not to be trusted either.

To add to the confusion, there are those who see Rosenstein as something of a quiet hero, a man who intentionally took control of the Russia Investigation out of the FBI’s hands and has operating with honorable, or at least fully legal intentions.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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