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Seattle’s Minimum Wage – Politics Versus Facts

June 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In 2014, the City of Seattle passed a  three-step minimum wage increase – from $9.32 to $15 per hour. You can find the exact details here. The $15 minimum wage began in 2017 for larger employers who do not provide healthcare benefits – $13.50 for those larger employers who do provide healthcare benefits. Adoption of the $15 rate by small businesses is set for 2021 – with inflation adjustments. Two wage increases have already been fully implemented. The first, from $9.32 to $11, occurred in 2015. A second increase – to $13 – took place in 2016.

And then a funny thing happened. The city, led by Seattle Mayor Ed Murray, decided to commission a study on the wage hikes – fully expecting the results would provide support for their position.Continue Reading

Trump’s Supreme Court Victory

June 26, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The Supreme Court granted President Trump what amounts to a crucial, although partial, stay of lesser court rulings on the Administration’s Travel Ban. The ruling was unanimous at 9-0. I have previously written on the Travel Ban, and, like many, am unsurprised at the ruling. The court will take up the case in October when it reconvenes – maybe.

You can find the full ruling by the Supreme Court here.

But first, it’s worth recalling exactly what the Travel Ban was attempting to accomplish. The second Executive Order’s Travel Ban contains four significant pronouncements:

  1. Directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to conduct a global review to determine whether foreign governments provide adequate information about nationals applying for United States visas.
  2. Directs that entry of nationals from six countries – Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen – be suspended for 90 days from the effective date of the order.
  3. Suspends the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) for 120 days following its effective date.
  4. Citing the President’s determination that “the entry of more than 50,000 refugees in fiscal year 2017 would be detrimental to the interests of the United States,” the order suspends any entries in excess of that number for fiscal 2017.

Continue Reading

Illegal Voting – Some Uncomfortable Facts and Findings

June 20, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A while back, in A Voter-Fraud Friendly Environment, I documented the laughably lax voting requirements in my home state of California. Now we have a new report by Just Facts that concludes that “as many as 5.7 million noncitizens may have voted in the 2008 election“. The Washington Times reported on the study yesterday.

I don’t know if the headline number is correct – although the methodology looks sound. I am far more interested in showing that illegal voting took place on some sort of significant scale than I am in determining the actual number. You can examine the Just Facts findings I highlight later in this piece and decide for yourself.

But first, a quick summary of the California voting situation:

  • No ID of any kind is required to actually vote at the ballot box
  • Illegal immigrants are legally allowed and encouraged to obtain CA drivers licenses
  • State officials chose not to make non-citizen license holders searchable in the DMV database
  • Eligible holders of CA driver licenses are automatically registered to vote
  • The California NVRA manual dictates a process of voter registration that makes it difficult not to be registered

Continue Reading

The Beauty of Negative Rights

June 16, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“The Constitution is a charter of negative rather than positive liberties” – Judge Richard Posner

Yesterday I stumbled across a quote from Senator Rand Paul that someone had posted in a Facebook Group. The quote comes from a Subcommittee Hearing on Healthcare on May 11, 2017. You can find a video of the hearing here. The quote made by Paul starts at 1:37:05. It reads as follows:

“With regard to the idea of whether you have a right to health care, you have realize what that implies. It’s not an abstraction. I’m a physician. That means you have a right to come to my house and conscript me. It means you believe in slavery. It means that you’re going to enslave not only me, but the janitor at my hospital, the person who cleans my office, the assistants who work in my office, the nurses.

Basically, once you imply a belief in a right to someone’s services — do you have a right to plumbing? Do you have a right to water? Do you have right to food? — you’re basically saying you believe in slavery…

I’m a physician in your community and you say you have a right to health care. You have a right to beat down my door with the police, escort me away and force me to take care of you? That’s ultimately what the right to free health care would be.”Continue Reading

The Struggle Revealed

June 14, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“A Republic, if you can keep it” – Benjamin Franklin

It finally happened.

Townhalls may never be the same.

There were lots of nice words spoken by Senators appearing in bipartisan press conferences. Not so on Twitter.

140 characters do not lend themselves to nuanced discussion.Continue Reading

James Comey & Questions That Linger

June 12, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“If I find out that people were leaking information about our investigation, whether to reporters or private parties, there will be severe consequences.” – James Comey – May 3 2017

James Comey released a surprisingly detailed Opening Statement the day before his infamous hearing. I discuss it here. It was so detailed that many predicted Comey’s actual testimony would prove to be a non-event. That view was not entirely accurate. Comey’s actual testimony proved to be a layered affair. There were the first impressions, then some deeper takeaways – and then further questions. I cover Comey’s testimony here. In it I discuss some serious timeline inconsistencies – and some inconsistencies in how he handled this affair versus the Clinton Criminal Investigation.

Despite the analysis, nagging questions remain. Questions that I do not have immediate answers to.Continue Reading

The Timeline Problems of James Comey’s Testimony

June 8, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

FBI Director James Comey delivered his long-awaited testimony to the Senate Intelligence Committee today. There are at least two significant timeline issues with Comey’s testimony.

Marco Rubio’s questioning summed up the hearing succinctly and in the most salient manner:

RUBIO: What it comes down to is the president asked three things of you. Asked for your loyalty. You said you’d be loyally honest.

COMEY: Honestly loyal.

RUBIO: Honestly loyal. He asked you on one occasion to let the Mike Flynn thing go because he was a good guy. By the way, you’re aware he said the same thing in the press the next day. He is a good guy, treated unfairly, et cetera. I imagine your FBI agents read that.

COMEY: I’m sure they did.Continue Reading

Comey’s Statement & His Political Undermining of President Trump

June 7, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Former FBI Director James Comey released his opening statement ahead of his testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on June 8 2017. My assessment follows the highlights of Comey’s statement.

Comey notes nine one-on-one interactions – three in person and six on the phone – with President Trump but highlights only five. He states:

January 6 2017:

on January 6 2017, he informed President Trump that he was not under investigation – without President Trump asking him about the matter.

he documented his first conversation with President Trump on a laptop immediately after the meeting.

he decided to create written records of conversations with President Trump from that point forward.

he did not engage in this practice with others – including written documentation of conversations with Obama – of which he says there were only two in eight years.

the FBI Investigation is a counter-intelligence investigation – not a criminal one.Continue Reading

The Timely Death of the DOJ Slush Fund

June 7, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Lots of news this week with the Senate Intelligence Committee Hearing underway and the breathless anticipation of former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony slated for tomorrow. Which is why this action by Attorney General Jeff Sessions has largely slipped under the radar.

A couple months back I wrote about The Department of Justice’s Slush Fund.

The Working Group was created within the Justice Department in 2012 as a means of prosecution and punishment for those perceived to be responsible for the financial crisis of 2008. With the full weight of the Department of Justice behind it, the Working Group reached multi-billion settlements with virtually every major bank in America.

According to a Congressional Committee Report – Stop Settlement Slush Funds Act of 2016:Continue Reading

Three Subpoenas – Unmasking the Unmaskers

June 1, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that seven subpoenas were issued by the House Intelligence Committee.

Four of the Subpoenas were for Mike Flynn and President Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen – one for each man and one for their respective companies. According to Fox News, these four subpoenas were “issued at behest of the committee’s ranking Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), and were said to be duplicative of subpoenas already issued by the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is conducting a parallel probe”. As such they are not the real story – indeed, they were almost certainly issued by Schiff as a distraction from the real story.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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