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A Very Telling Trade Meeting

February 14, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The Conservative Treehouse pointed out an unexpectedly televised roundtable with Members of Congress and President Trump’s Cabinet regarding our nation’s Trade Policies.

What transpired was nothing short of astonishing:

Yesterday President Trump invited the media to keep their cameras on during a round-table discussion on trade. He did this for a reason. President Trump wanted the American voters to watch Republican politicians demand that he stop trying to bring manufacturing jobs to the United States.

Which is exactly what the Republican Congressmen did.Continue Reading

Tax Cuts & Deregulation – It’s Really That Simple

January 18, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

We’ve witnessed the greatest creation of value the world has ever experienced.

$8 Trillion in value and counting.

It was always there – it was just waiting to be released. Government simply needed to get out of the way.Continue Reading

An Article Compilation

January 17, 2018 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

This post is the result of requests I’ve received from readers to compile articles by category along with a description of each article.

This should prove helpful to those wanting to look into the unfolding FBI/DOJ/Obama Administration scandal surrounding illegal surveillance and collusion.Continue Reading

The Consumer Confidence Conundrum

October 16, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

It’s the economy, stupid – James Carville

The Index of Consumer Sentiment – more commonly known as the Consumer Confidence Index – came in at 101.5, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 – an almost 14 year high.Continue Reading

President Trump’s Corporate Tax Proposal

September 29, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The United States’ 39% marginal corporate tax rate (35% federal and 4% average state and local) is the third highest in the world. It is the highest of the 34 industrialized nation members of the OECD – and it compares poorly with Europe’s average tax rate of 24%.

Because of loopholes, deductions, loss carry-forwards, etc., few, if any, companies pay the full 39% rate. Nevertheless, our statutory rate is higher than almost anywhere in the world.

President Trump has proposed lowering the Corporate Tax Rate from 35% to 20%. That’s a good idea – but it doesn’t go far enough. The Corporate Tax Rate should really be lowered to zero.

If this sounds a bit off, stay with me – I promise it will make more sense.Continue Reading

Globally Leveraging our Energy Production

August 10, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Dr. Sebastian Gorka recently referred to the U.S. as a Hyperpower. He is correct.

But power is not purely military. Power is also economic might and influence.

The two are inexorably linked to the other.

President Trump campaigned on energy independence for the United States. He immediately followed through on those promises by signing the Energy Independence Policy Executive Order, which unleashed a wave of U.S. energy production.Continue Reading

Seattle’s Minimum Wage – Politics Versus Facts

June 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In 2014, the City of Seattle passed a  three-step minimum wage increase – from $9.32 to $15 per hour. You can find the exact details here. The $15 minimum wage began in 2017 for larger employers who do not provide healthcare benefits – $13.50 for those larger employers who do provide healthcare benefits. Adoption of the $15 rate by small businesses is set for 2021 – with inflation adjustments. Two wage increases have already been fully implemented. The first, from $9.32 to $11, occurred in 2015. A second increase – to $13 – took place in 2016.

And then a funny thing happened. The city, led by Seattle Mayor Ed Murray, decided to commission a study on the wage hikes – fully expecting the results would provide support for their position.Continue Reading

The EU’s Two Intractable Issues & Election Anxiety

April 25, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Brussels is breathing a sigh of relief. The first round of the French elections have passed with Marie Le Pen, the anti-immigration, anti-European Union candidate, and Emmanuel Macron, a centrist, pro-open borders and pro-European Union, heading for a runoff election on May 7th. Macron is heavily favored to win the runoff election according to polls. It is telling that both candidates are effectively outsiders – candidates from the French establishment parties were defeated.

But Brussels should not feel overly confident with this short-term respite. While Le Pen is likely to lose the runoff election, she will remain a political force. If she somehow pulls off an upset win, the shock to the EU will be severe – perhaps fatal. Italy, however, may be the true test for the EU. Indeed, Italy may be the place where the fate of the European Union is decided.Continue Reading

Your Taxes – How They’re Spent, Some Budget Problems & Spending Gone Crazy

April 17, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

”Think of the federal government as a gigantic insurance company – with a sideline business in national defense and homeland security, which does its accounting on a cash basis. And an insurance company with cash accounting . . . is an accident waiting to happen.” – Peter Fisher – former U.S. Treasury Under-Secretary – Head of Domestic Finance

In advance of Tax Day I thought it an appropriate time to revisit how our federal taxes are utilized. How your tax payments are actually spent by the federal government, some very real problems we are facing and some examples of government spending gone awry.

But first, where do our federal tax revenues come from? Ultimately, they come from you and me. Individual income taxes account for 47% federal revenues. Payroll taxes account for another 34% of federal revenues. Corporate income taxes account for about 10% of federal revenues – a figure that often surprises many with its small percentage relative to income and payroll taxes. As discussed in Abolish the Corporate Tax, corporations are actually tax collectors – legal entities that serve to collect taxes on behalf of the corporation’s owners. Therefore, the true corporate taxpayers are the company’s shareholders – and perhaps, to some degree, labor and customers – not corporations. The remaining 9% comes from customs duties and excise taxes.

In fiscal year 2016 the federal government spent $3.95 trillion. About $2.7 trillion – more than two-thirds of total spending – went for social “insurance” (Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, unemployment compensation, veterans benefits). National defense spending equaled $600 billion or 15% of federal spending. Interest on our national debt equaled 6% of federal spending.Continue Reading

Russia’s Strategic Interest in Syria

April 12, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“One of the most important tasks is to broaden the energy supply … Energy determines today international security and social as well as economic development in many respects. In reality the well-being of millions of people is directly dependent in energy security.” – Vladimir Putin

“Qatar would like to see WJC (Bill Clinton) “for five minutes” in NYC, to present $1 million check that Qatar promised for WJC’s birthday in 2011.” – Amitabh Desai (Dir Foreign Policy – Clinton Foundation)

Russia has long supported Syria and the Assad regime – and has assisted Assad politically, financially and with military aid since the beginning of the Syrian conflict. On September 30, 2015, Russia officially joined the fight in Syria with a series of airstrikes. Prior to direct Russian intervention it had appeared the Assad regime would collapse. Fast-forward to the present. The rebel forces have lost and pro-Assad forces now control most major cities. ISIS remains in the less populated Syrian northeast.

So, why is Russia involved with Syria?Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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