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Liberal Causes & Sudden Insights – Why Facts Fail

March 29, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it” – Nancy Pelosi

Do you ever wonder why the Left always seems so unanimous? How Democrats seem to circle the wagons around their own while Republicans seem a more fractious bunch? I have been exploring the differences between the Left and the Right in general, and specifically in two earlier pieces, The Left and the Right – Shoulds and Coulds and Liberals, Conservatives and Fiscal Choices. Here are a few of the earlier thoughts I had on the matter:

Most on the Left start with good intentions and end in poor implementation.

Conservatives favor issues. Liberals favor causes.

Conservatives argue with logic. Liberals argue with emotion.

Conservatives are fiscally focused. Liberals are socially focused.

Conservatives think Government is the problem. Liberals think Government is the solution.Continue Reading

Liberals, Conservatives and Fiscal Choices

March 20, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Democrats and Republicans are diametrically opposed in so many ways but I think it comes down to a couple basic factors. As I noted in the The Left and the Right – Shoulds and Coulds, the Left tends to argue with emotion while the Right tends to argue with logic. I think most on the Left start with good intentions and end in poor implementation. I summed up the article thusly:

Liberal policies tend to tell you what to do. Conservative policies tend to motivate you to do something.

When I engage in discussions with Democrats I always seem to come away from the conversation having just heard a mandate of some kind. Continue Reading

A Destination-Based Tax & the Border Adjustment

February 28, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The United States utilizes a “Worldwide” tax code – and that’s a problem.

Most other nations use a “Territorial” tax system – companies are taxed by the country where the economic activity takes place. This territorial system is better suited to the multi-national landscape companies operate in today – which is why all other G-7 nations use the “territorial” approach. Under a territorial system, a multi-national company pays taxes to each of the nations it does business in according to the amount of economic activity done in each nation’s borders and according to the particular nation’s tax rate. This has the obvious advantage of placing all companies operating within a given nation on the same economic footing from a tax burden perspective. Under our current Worldwide system, U.S. corporations are taxed at the same 35% federal tax rate – less taxes paid to foreign governments and allowed deductibles – no matter where their profits are made.Continue Reading

Financial Market Truths & Liberal Outrage

February 19, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what’s in it” – Nancy Pelosi

“You don’t get to hold the entire economy, the entire country, hostage because you don’t like the outcome of the election” – Elizabeth Warren

“There are many things that can be done administratively by the IRS and other government agencies” to silence groups that obstruct Democratic policies – Chuck Schumer

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi held a press conference on Friday to berate President Trump for “accomplishing nothing” in his first 4 weeks as President. I could only shake my head – and hope that she keeps talking.

Here’s a quick list – in no particular order – of President Trump’s accomplishments so far:Continue Reading

Super Bowl Ads, Audi & the Gender Pay Gap

February 6, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Football, and indeed all sports, is a form of escape – a place of bonding – and a platform for common ground. Despite the often intense rivalries, football provides an immediately connectable point for conversation amongst perfect strangers. The Super Bowl is a uniquely American creation, with all the pageantry, spectacle and larger-than-life performances that link the entire nation – at least to some degree.

And yet the NFL took a backseat to politics this year – and had the ratings to prove it. So, I thought it was wonderfully timely that this year gave us the greatest Super Bowl I have ever seen. It also gave us an unusually political  – and sometimes controversial – overtone to the commercials.Continue Reading

Progressive’s False Narrative & Trump’s Economic Response

February 3, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

As I wrote yesterday, Liberals are aghast over what has happened. They still cannot come to grips with the fact that they have lost the House, the Senate, the Presidency, the majority of Governorships and State Legislatures…and the Supreme Court.

Progressives are out in force protesting wherever possible – straining to make their voices heard. But the real strategy is this. Find an issue to coalesce around – to help fuel the outrage – and then use your networks and social media to create the event or protest. Or better yet, find an existing protest or event – a real one – and amplify it through the use of paid agitators and organized protesters.  Commit acts of violence and destruction in spectacular fashion and get the whole spectacle splashed on the news. Make the protests look bigger, more widespread – more inclusive – than they really are.

Create the protests. Amplify the protests.

Now comes the real trick – the entire purpose behind the staged events. Convince everyday Americans that they are wrong – convince Americans this is how the majority of people feel about our country – convince Americans this is how the majority feel about President Trump – about his policies and reforms.Continue Reading

Congressional Review Act – A Regulatory Killer

February 1, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A little-known law has suddenly been getting a lot of attention in our nation’s Capital. The Congressional Review Act (CRA) – put into law in 1996 as part of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America – is an oversight tool that Congress may use to overturn a rule issued by a federal agency.

The CRA was put into law as a means for Congress to oversee and control regulations issued by agencies, yet it has only been successfully used one time – during the start of the Bush Administration. The reason for this is simple. The law requires a Presidential signature for final approval – or a veto. A sitting president is unlikely to sign a resolution overturning regulations issued by his own agency and would therefore veto any CRA resolution passed by Congress.

The CRA applies to rules implemented in the last sixty legislative working days.

The Obama Administration issued literally tens of thousands of regulations (see: Trump’s Deregulation Gift). The 2016 Federal Register (the daily depository of rules and regulations) contains 97,110 pages, the highest page count in its history – dwarfing the previous record set in 2010 (also Obama) of 81,405. The Federal Register page count stood at 81,640 at the start of December 2016 when I wrote the Trump deregulation article – 15,470 pages were added in the last month of 2016 alone. There has never been a time more primed for the revival of the Congressional Review Act.Continue Reading

Trump’s Amazing First Days

January 25, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

“I’m not a politician, and have never wanted to be one. But when I saw the trouble our country was in, I knew I couldn’t stand by and watch any longer.

“What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between Donald J. Trump and the American voter – and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington,”

– President Donald J. Trump

Every single morning there are new and significant Presidential Actions being taken – and virtually all are linked to promises President Trump made during his campaign.

Apparently, he really did mean what he said.Continue Reading

The Left and the Right – Shoulds and Coulds

January 11, 2017 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

 

Should: used to indicate obligation, duty, or correctness, typically when criticizing someone’s actions

Could: used to indicate possibility, used in making polite requests

During this election process I’ve had numerous political discussions with people from varying backgrounds and from both political parties. And, in doing so, I’ve noticed something. When talking to folks from the Democratic side of the aisle, their discussions typically start with the word “should”. As in we “should” do something about climate change, we “should” help the poor, the rich “should” pay more, the minimum wage “should” be higher, Congress “should” do something. Noble thoughts perhaps, but often misguided and always ignoring the unbreakable Law of Unintended Consequences.Continue Reading

Building Better Infrastructure Plans

December 12, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Recently, I was asked what I thought of the $1 trillion infrastructure plan that Trump has repeatedly mentioned in his campaign – and more specifically, my thoughts on the white paper put forth by Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro. While I had originally looked at their proposal I hadn’t thought about the Ross-Navarro Plan in some time so I went back for a re-visit.

Before we move forward I want to explicitly state at the outset that I am not in favor of Keynesian Spending (Demand-Side Economics). Trump’s infrastructure plan has always been the one part of his platform that I have been uncomfortable with. I am opposed to any government-funded infrastructure stimulation program. As a proponent of free markets and a conservative, I favor reductions in overall government spending and lowering of taxes. Federal expenditures on capital projects simply in order to boost economic growth and employment is a failed policy approach. Any resulting economic stimulus is inherently long-term in nature and should always be done for fundamental needs only. This does not mean I am against any infrastructure spending but I believe infrastructure spending is best done at the state and local level and with as much private participation as possible. Infrastructure spending should be allocated carefully and should not done with the primary goal of achieving economic growth. Federal expenditures used to stimulate economic growth through infrastructure builds could be more efficiently deployed simply by cutting taxes and allowing private companies to grow. Federal spending on infrastructure projects for short-term economic stimulation is akin to taking water out of one end of a pool and pouring it in the other. The only real economic stimulation from such a program is inherently long-term.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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