themarketswork

a common sense approach to a liberal world

Trump’s Amazing First Days

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“I’m not a politician, and have never wanted to be one. But when I saw the trouble our country was in, I knew I couldn’t stand by and watch any longer.

“What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between Donald J. Trump and the American voter – and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington,”

– President Donald J. Trump

Every single morning there are new and significant Presidential Actions being taken – and virtually all are linked to promises President Trump made during his campaign.

Apparently, he really did mean what he said.Continue Reading

A Speech to Remember

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“This is your moment, it belongs to you…This is your day. This is your celebration. And this, the United States of America, is your country…The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.”

“At the center of this movement is a crucial conviction, that a nation exists to serve its citizens.”

“Through our loyalty to our country, we will rediscover our loyalty to each other. When you open your heart to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice.”

– President Donald J. Trump

A historic day. A historic moment. A historic speech.

And so it was that Donald J. Trump became the 45th President of the United States.Continue Reading

A Trumpian Evolution

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If you have been following my posts you can probably discern pretty quickly that I am a fan of President-Elect Trump. If you’ve read carefully – especially the earlier posts – you will see it wasn’t always this way. It took some evolving. It wasn’t until my 26th post – Quietly Enthusiastic – that I realized I had completely come around and was fully supportive of Trump’s candidacy. I don’t agree with everything Trump puts forth – especially on some trade issues – but I am firmly in the Trump camp.

At this point some disclosure is warranted. I entered the high yield market back in 1989 – working first as an analyst and then assistant portfolio manager – at an institution that held a significant presence in the high yield market. This meant that we obtained one-on-one meetings for any deal making its way through the HY market – and Trump was reasonably active back in those days. It also meant we were generally offered the chance to meet privately with any HY issuer at the various conferences we would attend each year. While I do not know the man on a personal level, I’ve met Trump on a few occasions and have had several internal institutional meetings with him – all of them in relation to deals he had brought or was bringing into the high yield market. These meetings occurred years ago – primarily during the 90’s – and involved several other individuals from my institution as well. I found Trump to be bright yet somewhat brash, friendly and cordial yet somewhat boastful – gregarious with a noticeably large personality. In all honesty, I viewed him as almost a caricature. Continue Reading

Trump’s Independent Cabinet

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“I want them to be themselves and express their own thoughts, not mine!”

“I told them, ‘Be yourself and say what you want to say. Don’t worry about me.'”

“I’m going to do the right thing, whatever it is. I may be right, they may be right. But I said, ‘Be yourself.'”

– President-Elect Trump on his Cabinet Nominees

With these words President-Elect Trump sent his cabinet nominees off to their respective Senate Confirmation Hearings. And Trump appears to have meant what he said as there were some notably divergent views expressed from his nominees.Continue Reading

Trump’s Tweets – and Why I Like Them

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President-Elect Trump once again started his morning with a series of Tweets – and thereby started the media’s day.

As I wrote in a short WSJ comment, “Initially I was bemused and skeptical over Trump’s use of Twitter as a communication platform. As time has gone by I have changed my sentiments. He is connecting with his base daily – citizens feel – and in some ways actually are – involved with our government and its issues. And that alone is a positive thing.”

Trump’s use of Twitter initially elicited derision from most folks – the left, the press, the political pundits – and much of the right. But it also resonated with some of those who mattered the most – middle Americans – folks who felt abandoned and ignored – even betrayed – by their government. Seeing daily messages from then-Presidential candidate Trump told Americans he was speaking directly to them – that he cared about their thoughts, opinions and concerns. He cared about them.Continue Reading

Merry Christmas Reclaimed

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The other day someone told me to “Have a Merry Christmas”. But that’s not what they really said. What they really said was “Have a good Holi….Have a Merry Christmas”. That’s a direct quote – and a good sign.

Last night I turned on the news to watch the Trump Rally in Wisconsin – in order to see what new announcements and appointments were forthcoming (think on that statement for a moment). To my pleasant surprise I saw a podium flanked by Christmas Trees with the words “Merry Christmas” emblazoned across its top. President-Elect Trump came onto the stage amidst chants of “USA, USA”, and he spoke these words;

“When I started eighteen months ago, I told my first crowd in Wisconsin that we’re gonna come back here some day and we are going to say Merry Christmas again. So Merry Christmas everyone. Happy New Year – but Merry Christmas.“

And I applauded.Continue Reading

Building Better Infrastructure Plans

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Recently, I was asked what I thought of the $1 trillion infrastructure plan that Trump has repeatedly mentioned in his campaign – and more specifically, my thoughts on the white paper put forth by Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro. While I had originally looked at their proposal I hadn’t thought about the Ross-Navarro Plan in some time so I went back for a re-visit.

Before we move forward I want to explicitly state at the outset that I am not in favor of Keynesian Spending (Demand-Side Economics). Trump’s infrastructure plan has always been the one part of his platform that I have been uncomfortable with. I am opposed to any government-funded infrastructure stimulation program. As a proponent of free markets and a conservative, I favor reductions in overall government spending and lowering of taxes. Federal expenditures on capital projects simply in order to boost economic growth and employment is a failed policy approach. Any resulting economic stimulus is inherently long-term in nature and should always be done for fundamental needs only. This does not mean I am against any infrastructure spending but I believe infrastructure spending is best done at the state and local level and with as much private participation as possible. Infrastructure spending should be allocated carefully and should not done with the primary goal of achieving economic growth. Federal expenditures used to stimulate economic growth through infrastructure builds could be more efficiently deployed simply by cutting taxes and allowing private companies to grow. Federal spending on infrastructure projects for short-term economic stimulation is akin to taking water out of one end of a pool and pouring it in the other. The only real economic stimulation from such a program is inherently long-term.Continue Reading

Trump’s Deregulation Gift

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The United States’ 39% marginal corporate tax rate is the third highest in the world and the highest of the 34 industrialized nation members of the OECD.

Regulatory burdens placed on business under the Obama Administration have become staggering – and even more costly. Here are some data points directly from the Competitive Enterprise Institute:

  • Federal regulation amounts to nearly $15,000 per U.S. household each year.
  • In 2015, 114 laws were enacted by Congress during the calendar year, while 3,410 rules were issued by agencies. Thus, 30 rules were issued for every law enacted last year.
  • Many Americans complain about taxes, but regulatory compliance costs exceed the $1.82 trillion that the IRS is expected to collect in both individual and corporate income taxes from 2015.
  • Some 60 federal departments, agencies, and commissions have 3,297 regulations in development at various stages in the pipeline. The top five federal rule-making agencies account for 41 percent of all federal regulations. These are the Departments of the Treasury, Commerce, Interior, Health and Human Services, and Transportation.
  • The 2016 Federal Register (the daily depository of rules and regulations) currently contains 81,640 pages, the highest page count in its history – and is still climbing. Obama also held the prior record, 81,405 pages in 2010. The 80,000 page mark has been passed in only three previous years (2010, 2011, 2015).
  • Of the ten all-time-highest Federal Register total page counts, seven occurred under President Obama.

Continue Reading

Carrot not Stick – Fixing our Economy

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“Underlying most arguments against the free market is a lack of belief in freedom itself.” – Milton Friedman

“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.” – President Ronald Reagan

“I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it’s possible.” – Milton Friedman

Yesterday I wrote on Why I Support the Carrier Deal – an unusual response from a free markets proponent.

I liked the Carrier Deal because it highlighted the much larger story that lay hidden behind the headlines – as is often the case.

The Carrier deal unto itself was actually small news and would likely have gone unnoticed in differing times. The real story is why United Technologies CEO Greg Hayes came and listened. He came to hear President-Elect Trump’s broader blueprint for our future. He came to hear about plans to reduce taxes, to remove regulations – plans and policies to make the United States a place that attracts, rather than repels, business activity. And that is the real story.Continue Reading

Why I Support the Carrier Deal

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President-Elect Trump’s decision to push Carrier to keep 1,000 jobs in the United States was hailed by some and condemned by others. The left and many fiscal conservatives on the right condemned the act as a $7 million payoff to Carrier, a shakedown, a poor deal, a ransom, soak the taxpayer. I understood the consternation of the fiscal conservatives as I am one of them. I found the uproar from the left a bit amusing given Obama’s $800 million American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and its failure to never once produce GDP growth in excess of 3% over his eight years – a dubious record never before accomplished in this country – with or without stimulus. The uproar on the left may have had a bit to do with who did the negotiating and who it was that benefited from the deal. Ironic, given that the Democratic Party was once upon a time the party of the American worker.

Personally, I am in favor of free markets, fiscally conservative and firmly believe in Supply Side Economics – and yet, I supported Trump’s decision. Why?Continue Reading