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Birth of an Administration

December 1, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Our nation’s best and brightest do not work in Washington.

Our best and brightest work in the private sector. They are on Wall Street and in the financial markets. They are CEO’s of companies. They are running hedge funds. They have created successful start-ups. They are collectors and managers of capital – both financial and human. They have no attraction for a traditional Washington and its hyperactive politics. They can deploy their skills far more successfully, and with far greater reward, in the free and open markets.

And yet they suddenly seem to be gravitating to Trump Tower – and that is of enormous benefit to our country’s future.

What do these folks have in common? They are all in jobs typically vilified by the left. They do not work in government. They are some of the smartest and most capable individuals this nation has to offer. They are driven.

Continue Reading

Not Romney – Respect (Don’t Alienate) Your Base

November 26, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

You have made many good cabinet choices President Trump. General Michael Flynn – National Security Adviser, Jeff Sessions – Attorney General, Mike Pompeo – CIA Director, Nikki Haley – Ambassador to UN – all choices I applaud. And I would love to see Wilbur Ross get Commerce Secretary and would especially love to see Ret. Gen James Mattis become Defense Secretary.

Which brings us to the Secretary of State. In one sense I liked that you decided to bring Romney in. It showed you as a better man than your critics portrayed – a man willing to move past the election and all its harshness (see: Temperamentally Sound Choices). But then again, you had already done that with some other choices and meetings – Ted Cruz and Nikki Halley leap to mind.

What I liked about the Romney meeting was two-fold. One – it signaled that you were not going to simply gift the Secretary of State position to Giuliani for his campaign loyalty. I don’t think Rudy is particularly suited to the Secretary of State position myself – He’s more an attack dog than diplomat by nature. Two – it signaled to the nation that you wanted to be a president of unity and were willing to try to move past pettiness and small-minded revenge.

BUT…Continue Reading

Temperamentally Sound Choices

November 17, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

For a man whose temperament supposedly made him “unfit for office” President-elect Trump seems to be moving forward on his cabinet selections in a measured, thoughtful pace that should serve as a warning to his critics and foes alike.

My initial reaction to hearing Giuliani mentioned as secretary of state was tepid at best – I thought he would be fine as Attorney General but Rudy apparently turned that post down. I was less excited about him as Secretary of State. The position and the man didn’t feel like a match. That being said, I was also sure he would simply be given the post he wanted as a reward for his campaign service. Now it’s being reported that there are numerous candidates for that post – including Mitt Romney and South Carolina Gov Nikki Haley. It was not a simple gimme for Rudy although he might still get it. My point here is not to speculate on possible nominations but rather to stop and note what the process indicates for the future.

“For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people. . . I’m reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country.”  – President-Elect Trump (from his Victory Speech)Continue Reading

The Renaissance of the Right

November 15, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The full enormity of what is happening within the GOP and Washington is just beginning to sink in, the possibilities just beginning to take hold.

A glimmer into what’s coming was revealed last night when Newt Gingrich, in talking about what position he might want in a Trump Administration, calmly and matter-of-factly uttered these words;

“I want to be the general planner, looking out over the next eight years, and trying to design how we fundamentally reshape the federal government”

“and that’s a very broad job. The closest analogy probably would be Harry Hopkins and the work he did for Franklin Delano Roosevelt”.

And that was the moment I began to truly grasp how enormously fundamental this structural change will be.Continue Reading

Reversal of Fortune

November 10, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

It’s hard to know where to start.

How to put things in perspective? So very much has changed in such a short space of time. Even when it was so very long in coming.

The financial markets have responded to Trump’s election with a thunderous roar of approval. The equity markets have been on fire  – the Dow Jones is up 5% for the week and closed at a new high. Bonds got rocked with the yield rising to 2.12% on the 10-year Treasury in anticipation of future economic growth and inflation (bear in mind the Fed’s target rate for inflation is 2% – some inflation is healthy). Investors are cheering the prospects of actual economic growth – along with an end to the perpetual Federal Reserve quantitative easing – that comes with tax cuts, a fiscal stimulus plan and…regulatory rollback. There is the very real possibility that we will get a repeal of the truly awful Dodd-Frank Act.Continue Reading

Things I learned from the Election

November 9, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Pollsters are overpaid

Liberals are not that tolerant after all

Most democrats get their rebuttal points straight from CNN

CNN gets its rebuttal points straight from the DNC

You can learn a lot from emailsContinue Reading

President Trump (and The Power of the Uncool)

November 9, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

The uncultured billionaire won the support of the uncultured voter. And became the President of the United States as a result.

Or as Greg Gutfeld said, “The uncool kids just told the cool kids to suck it”.

Think about it this way. This country has millions of folks who get up every day, go to their jobs, coach their kids’ little league teams, have dinner around the living room table – and then sit down in front of the television and find out they are mocked for the very values that guide their daily life.

Since when did it become the norm to look down on folks who work hard, raise their kids and love their family and country? My guess is the nineties…Continue Reading

Donald’s Uncertainty Trumps an Amoral Leadership

November 7, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

A great leader is one who surrounds himself with great people.

A leader is rarely an expert himself. He relies on specialists below him for policy-specific knowledge and recommendations. A leader looks at the combined whole – the larger view. A leader makes the final decisions. Most importantly, a leader provides guidance to those serving beneath him. A leader sets the moral tone.

There seem to be two generalized views of our presidential candidates.Continue Reading

Divided We Stand

November 6, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

What do we, as a nation, become on Wednesday?

Do we stand together, united as one, under our newly elected president or do we remain apart – distanced by our ideological beliefs?

There are many who are concerned over the rift exposed throughout our nation during this election cycle. At the polarization that has occurred. At the emotions evoked and stirred.

I am not one of those.  I am unconcerned over the rift – although I am concerned over the reasons for the rift. And I reject calls to simply fall behind any elected leader.Continue Reading

Quietly Enthusiastic

November 4, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Are you an enthusiastic voter?

No?

Maybe it’s worth thinking a bit more on that simple question.

The common refrain is “I’m not enthusiastic about either candidate”, but is that really true?

Or is it actually a reflexive defense mechanism?Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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