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Role Reversal

November 2, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Have you seen any of Trump’s rally speeches over the last couple days? If you haven’t here’s some real news.

Donald Trump has been acting…perfectly rational.

His speeches have been tight and focused. He spent yesterday hammering home the true costs of ObamaCare while scarcely uttering the word FBI. The day before he was more focused on his Plan for America. Today – it’s back to the FBI and Hillary’s character. And it’s working. Hillary’s trust numbers are now significantly below Trump’s at 38% for Hillary to 46% for TrumpContinue Reading

Hillary Uncertified

October 30, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

In overly simplified terms there are usually three types of voters.

Core voters – vote their party no matter what

Generalized voters – typically – but not always – vote their party.

Undecided voters – vote loosely and not consistently

This year I would re-classify voters into five new types:

Never Trump – You know who you are (Includes some Republicans)

Never Hillary – You also know who you are (Includes three Democrats)Continue Reading

Chinese Horses

October 21, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Being mindful of the uncertainty of it all I share my favorite parable.

A simple story bearing two thousand year-old roots and said to be of Taoist origin. I make no claim on its true beginning nor accuracy. I simply relay it to you as it was told to me.

Continue Reading

Moderately Excellent

October 20, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

You knew he had to come prepared. He had to be at his finest for this third and final debate. Sharp. Focused. In control. He looked slightly nervous at first – recognizing the significance of the moment – but he settled quickly and moved forward with purpose. He was thoughtful yet tough. Aggressive but not pushy. He maintained his poise and exhibited a certain dignity. He spoke when he should and knew when to stay quiet. Yes, Chris Wallace was truly excellent, just outstanding in every way. Oh yeah, Trump was there too. And Clinton.

How bad is it when the moderator is the star of the show? Chris Wallace was not only great, he highlighted how truly awful the prior moderators were.Continue Reading

Calling All Leaders

October 17, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Those who most want to rule others are least suited to do so.

It’s an old adage but one that rings particularly true right now. That and maybe the one about how power corrupts.

We are currently enduring two of the least popular, least liked and least trusted candidates we have ever seen. One, seemingly corrupt and a congenital liar and the other childish, boorish and unpredictable (I’ll leave it to you to figure out which is which). It’s embarrassing. And scary. And ugly.

It’s this ugliness that has me thinking about the future – specifically our nation’s future.Continue Reading

Market Pricing

October 16, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

I woke up this morning to the “stunning” news that Trump was only 4 points behind Hillary according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. As an aside the WSJ’s web page headline reads Trump trails Hillary by 11 using a different – and possibly earlier poll – go figure. Either way, I didn’t find the news all that stunning.

Allow me to explain. For the entire campaign, the media has been reporting on Trump. Digging up whatever they could. And then came the news of Trump’s comments and the entire firestorm that ensued. In my personal opinion the media ended up far more frothy and lathered about this issue than did the general public – but that’s not the direct point I will be making – although it is connected.Continue Reading

Supreme Issues

October 14, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

There is one over-arching issue that I’ve been almost singularly focused on.

The Supreme Court.

This institution shapes our national character more than any other – and its presence is felt far past any president’s time in office.Continue Reading

Just Because You’re Paranoid…

October 13, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

Trump has declared war on the GOP, The Department of Justice and the FBI. It all seems a bit much – over the top, hysterical and shrill. Desperate? Paranoid?

I certainly think it comes across that way and its not the tactics I would advise. But then I would have advised against so very much of what he’s done.

Who goes on a podium and says the Department of Justice and the FBI are corrupt? Continue Reading

An Election Too Far?

October 11, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

This has been an election characterized by low emotions. We’ve all had almost visceral reactions to the tenor (and words) of the entire process.

The 2nd debate reignited those feelings. The attacks from both candidates were like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Trump threatened to appoint a special prosecutor to go after Clinton and Hillary came right out and stated that Donald was unfit to be president. And so much more. An amazing spectacle it was.

It feels wrong, cheapened somehow. Our presidential election should be better, nobler. Continue Reading

Donald Unchained

October 10, 2016 by Jeff Carlson, CFA

And, no, nothing was silent (apologies to Quentin Tarantino).

Wow. Just…wow.

Did someone get the license plate of the truck that hit Hillary?

I’m having trouble deciding if the release of Trump’s comments from 10 years ago was a terrible thing or a great thing for his campaign. I’m leaning towards the great side.Continue Reading

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Jeff Carlson is a CFA® charterholder.

He worked for 20 years as an analyst and portfolio manager in the High Yield Bond Market. He holds degrees in finance and economics.

He can be found on X (Twitter) at @themarketswork or on Substack at Truth Over News

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