Papadopoulos, Mifsud & Manafort Coincidences

On September 19, 2017, CNN reported that Paul Manafort had been under Title I FISA surveillance since 2014:

A secret order authorized by the court that handles the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) began after Manafort became the subject of an FBI investigation that began in 2014.

US investigators wiretapped former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort under secret court orders before and after the election.

The FISA Warrant, which had been active since 2014, was not renewed sometime in 2016:

Surveillance was discontinued at some point last year [2016] for lack of evidence.

But a new FISA Warrant was obtained – probably in the fall of 2016:

The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year [2017].

Sources say the second warrant was part of the FBI’s efforts to investigate ties between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives.

Some clues to the expiration and restart of the FISA Warrants were provided:

The government snooping continued into early this year [2016], including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump.

FISA Surveillance on Manafort was no longer active by late May 2016:

As Manafort took the reins as Trump campaign chairman in May, the FBI surveillance technicians were no longer listening.

Surveillance on Manafort was then re-started:

The FBI then restarted the surveillance after obtaining a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year [2017].

It is unclear when the new warrant started. The FBI interest deepened last fall [2016] because of intercepted communications between Manafort and suspected Russian operatives.

Manafort first reached out to the Trump Campaign on February 29, 2016:

On Feb. 29, 2016, Mr. Manafort…reached out to Mr. Trump with a slick, carefully calibrated offer.

Manafort and President Trump had not been in communication for years until the Trump Campaign responded to Manafort’s offer:

“Donald Trump and I had some business in the 1980s but we had no relationship until the Trump campaign called me.”

On March 28, 2016 Manafort was hired by the Trump Campaign. Manafort was initially hired to lead the Trump Campaign’s delegate effort but he was soon promoted.

On May 19, 2016, Manafort became Trump’s campaign chairman and chief strategist.

On August 19, 2016, Manafort resigned from the Trump Campaign.

Notably, there has been no reporting of Manafort being surveilled under a FISA Warrant while a member of the Trump Campaign.

Recall from earlier:

The government snooping continued into early this year, including a period when Manafort was known to talk to President Donald Trump.

This would indicate surveillance continued after the Trump Campaign responded to Manafort’s February 28, 2016 offer and ended before Manafort officially joined the Trump Campaign on March 28, 2016.

It would appear that the new FISA Warrant became active sometime in October 2016. This assumes the reporting of a second FISA Warrant is correct (Title I FISA Warrants typically have 90 day intervals for renewal).

…a new FISA warrant that extended at least into early this year [2017].

It’s also possible that surveillance was obtained through the use of National Security Letters. NSLs do not require prior approval from a judge. By law, NSLs can request only non-content information (transactional records, phone numbers called) but never the content from that information.

Although most of the article refers to the FBI, there is one other Agency that’s referenced:

The CIA also had developed information, including from human intelligence sources, that they believed showed Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered his intelligence services to conduct a broad operation to meddle with the US election.

Including from human intelligence sources…

Which brings us to George Papadopoulos.

1) Was Papadopoulos supposed to fill the gap in surveillance left by the expired FISA on Manafort?

Recall those missing June/July 2016 FISA Application denials.https://t.co/r1MMgdS7iX

— Jeff @ themarketswork (@themarketswork) July 30, 2018

Initially, I viewed Papadopoulos as nothing more than a pawn in a much larger game – an easy target for Obama’s Intelligence Agencies. But as new information and a continuation of ever-increasing coincidences came forth, I began to reassess that position.

I don’t have enough information to be certain of anything. But I’m far from convinced that Papadopoulos was simply an innocent victim of events.

There are a number of things that bother me about Papadopoulos’ story. Not the least of which is this.

Papadopoulos continuously pushed for meetings between Trump Campaign officials and Russian contacts:

March 24 2016 – Following the meeting with Mifsud and Polonskaya, Papadopoulos emails the campaign supervisor and several members of the Campaign’s Foreign Policy Team regarding the meeting.
March 31 2016 – Papadopoulos attends D.C. “national security” meeting with Trump and other foreign policy advisors. Papadopoulos states he “had connections that could help arrange a meeting between then-candidate Trump and President Putin.” This is Papadopoulos’ only direct visit with the Trump Campaign I know of.
Early April 2016 – Following D.C trip Papadopoulos works with Mifsud and Polonskaya to arrange a meeting between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government.
Early April 2016 – Papadopoulos sends multiple emails to other members of the Campaign’ s foreign policy team regarding his contacts with “the Russians” and his “outreach to Russia.”
April 27 2016 – Papadopoulos emails Trump Campaign Senior Policy Advisor: “Have some interesting messages coming in from Moscow about a trip when the time is right.”
April 27 2016 – Papadopoulos “emails a high-ranking official of the Trump Campaign “to discuss Russia’s interest in hosting Mr. Trump.”
May 4 2016 – The Russian MFA Connection sends an email that stated: “I have just talked to my colleagues from the MFA. The[y] are open for cooperation. One of the options is to make a meeting for you at the North America Desk, if you are in Moscow.”
May 5 2016 – Papadopoulos has a phone call with the Campaign Supervisor, and then forwards the May 4 MFA Email to him, adding to the top of the email: “Russia updates.”
May 14 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official and states that the ” Russian government[] ha[s] also relayed to me that they are interested in hosting Mr. Trump.”
May 21 2016 – Papadopoulos emails another high-ranking Campaign official, with the subject line “Request from Russia to meet Mr. Trump.”
June 1 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official and asked about Russia.
Mid June-Mid August 2016 – Papadopoulos pursues an “off the record” meeting between one or more Campaign representatives and “members of president putin’s office and the mfa.” (Mueller Version of events).
June 19 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official, with the subject line “New message from Russia” – I am willing to make the trip off the record if it’s in the interest of Mr. Trump and the campaign to meet specific people.”
July 14 2016 – Papadopoulos emails Timofeev and proposed a “meeting for August or September in the UK (London) with me and my national chairman, and maybe one other foreign policy advisor and you, members of president putin’s office and the mfa.”
July 22 2016 – Papadopoulos messages Timofeev [Foreign Contact 2] on Facebook to ask whether Timofeev [Foreign Contact 2] knows a particular individual with extensive ties to Russian-based businesses and persons. Papadopoulos asks Timofeev [Foreign Contact 2] “[i]f you know any background of him that is noteworthy before I see him, kindly send my way.” The referenced individual is Sergei Millian.
~July 23-25 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Sergei Millian. This meeting appears nowhere in the Mueller or FBI legal documents relating to the Papadopoulos case.
July 31 2016 – FBI opens Counterintelligence Investigation.
August 1-August 15 2016 – Papadopoulos continues to communicate with Trump Campaign officials regarding a potential “off the record” meeting with Russian officials. There are probably foreign contacts made during this time but no details are disclosed in either the Mueller or FBI legal documents.

The persistence of Papadopoulos has always bothered me. At some point your efforts become counterproductive. How many times do you have to be told “no”.

Papadopoulos was unsuccessful in establishing any meetings between the Trump Campaign and Russian Officials.

These ongoing attempts by Papadopoulos feel eerily similar to those made by Joseph Mifsud and Stefan Halper. Use intentionally manufactured meetings and contacts to create perceived associations with Russia.

Papadopoulos met with Mifsud multiple times in the first half of 2016 (more below).

Papadopoulos and Mifsud both worked at the London Centre of International Law Practice.

Mifsud appears to have joined LCILP around November 2015. Papadopoulos reportedly joined LCILP sometime in late February 2016 after leaving Ben Carson’s campaign.

However, some reports indicate Papadopoulos joined LCILP in November/December 2015:

In 2015, Papadopoulos joined the London Center of International Law Practice as the director of the Center for International Energy and Natural Resources Law and Security. Papadopoulos focuses on the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the Caspian region.

In 2015, he spoke to a business and energy convention in Israel, explaining the complex market for natural gas in the region. At the conference, he touched on issues of U.S.-Israel-Russia relations in an interview with Natural Gas Europe.

The date of the Natural Gas Europe article is listed as December 18, 2015.

Details surrounding LCILP are a bit…strange:

In its three years of existence, LCILP has had five changes of address and is currently at 8 Lincolns Inn Fields. Among London’s legal community this ranks as a highly prestigious address but reporters who paid visits last week to the fine Georgian building left disappointed.

The Washington Post “buzzed the door on several occasions during business hours” but no one answered. Quartz Media had a little more luck, and discovered that LCILP’s office “amounted to four people working in an undecorated backroom, all of whom declined to comment”.

You can read more on LCILP here and here.

Mifsud and Papadopoulos reportedly never crossed paths until March 14, 2016…in Italy:

November 2015 – Mifsud joins London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP).
November/December 2015 – Papadopoulos may have joined London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP) around the same time as Mifsud. Reporting is conflicted.
December 18, 2015 – Papadopoulos’ interview with Natural Gas Europe. Per these sources, Papadopoulos is already employed with London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP).
December 28 2015 – Strzok text: “You get all our oconus lures approved?” OCONUS is an acronym for Outside of the Continental United States.
Late February 2016 – Papadopoulos more commonly acknowledged to have joined London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP) after leaving Ben Carson’s campaign.
March 14 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy – approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
March 16 2016 – Strzok text: “Our guy is talking.”
March 21 2016 – Carter Page & George Papadopoulos join the Trump Campaign as advisors on foreign policy.
March 24 2016 – Papadopoulos, Mifsud, Olga Polonskaya and possibly an unknown fourth party (designated the “Russian Ambassador to London – who also acts as the Deputy Foreign Minister”) meet in a London cafe. Polonskaya is introduced as “Putin’s niece”. Polonskaya is known as “Female Russian National” in the October 5, 2017 unsealed Statement of Offense and “Foreign Contact 3” July 27, 2017 Affidavit.
March 31 2016 – Papadopoulos attends D.C. “national security” meeting with Trump and other foreign policy advisors. Papadopoulos states he “had connections that could help arrange a meeting between then-candidate Trump and President Putin.” This is Papadopoulos’ only direct visit with the Trump Campaign I know of.
Early April 2016 – Following D.C trip Papadopoulos works with Mifsud and Polonskaya to arrange a meeting between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government.
April 10 2016 – Papadopoulos emails Polonskaya who responded the next day, on or about April 11, 2016, that she “would be very pleased to support your initiatives between our two countries.” Papadopoulos then asked the Female Russian National, in an email cc’ing the Professor, about setting up “a potential foreign policy trip to Russia.”
April 14-May 10 2016 – Papadopoulos leaves position at London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP). Details on this are vague.
April 18 2016 – Mifsud introduces Papadopoulos by email to Ivan Timofeev, an official at a state-sponsored think tank called Russian International Affairs Council. Timofeev tells Papadopoulos he has connections to the Russian Ministry of Affairs (MFA). Timofeev is referred to as the “Russian MFA Connection” in the October 5, 2017 unsealed Statement of Offense and Foreign Contact 2 in the July 27, 2017 Affidavit.
April 26 2016 – Mifsud tells Papadopoulos he’s met with high-level Russian government officials who have “dirt” on Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails”. Papadopoulos will falsely tell the FBI he learned of this information prior to joining the Trump Campaign.
April 30 2016 – Papadopoulos thanks Mifsud for his “critical help” in arranging a meeting between the Campaign and the Russian government, and remarked: ” It’ s history making if it happens.”
April 30 2016 – Strzok text: “And now we’ve switched from the Patriot Act to a wire carrying current.”
May 10 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Australian Diplomat Alexander Downer.
May 13 2016 – Mifsud emails Papadopoulos an update of “recent conversations”.

With one exception, May 13, 2016 marks the last communication between Papadopoulos and Mifsud.

October 1 2016 – Papadopoulos sends Mifsud a private Facebook message with a link to an article from Interfax.com, a Russian news website.

This contact is only disclosed in the FBI’s July 28, 2017 Affidavit, signed by FBI Agent Robert Gibbs. Notably, it is not disclosed in the October 5, 2017 Statement of the Offense signed by Robert Mueller. For more see here.

Significant events occurring in the surrounding days of that final communication:

Early October 2016 – Bruce Ohr meets with Dossier author Christopher Steele.
Early October 2016 – Bruce Ohr meets with Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS).
October 1 2016 – Papadopoulos sends Mifsud a private Facebook message with a link to an article from Interfax.com, a Russian news website.
October 3, 2016 – Steele meets in Rome with FBI Eurasian Joint Organized Crime Squad Team. Steele is asked to “explain how he had compiled his reports, and to give background on his sources.
Early/Mid-October 2016 – New FISA Warrant on Manafort likely issued. Possibly a National Security Letter.
October 21 2016 – FISA Warrant on Carter Page issued.
October 24 2016 – Rogers verbally informs the FISA Court of Section 702(17) violations.

Both Papadopoulos and Mifsud were interviewed by the FBI. Papadopoulos was ultimately charged. Mifsud was never charged:

January 27 2017 – Papadopoulos interviewed by FBI, which results in his eventual indictment for lying to FBI.
February 8-12 2017 – Mifsud speaks with FBI. Mifsud is never charged.
February 16 2017 – Papadopoulos interviewed again by FBI (item 32).
February 17 2017 – Papadopoulos deactivates Facebook account (item 33).
February 23 2017 – Papadopoulos changes cell phone numbers (item 34).

More on Papadopoulos’ arrest shortly.

I don’t have enough information to make a final determination on Mifsud, but I strongly suspect concrete ties to British and/or Western Intelligence will ultimately come forth.

Julian Assange put out a Twitter Thread noting the connection between Mifsud and UK Intelligence. Disobedient Media has done a series of articles on Mifsud’s strange background – or lack thereof – here, here and here.

Chris Blackburn had this to say on Mifsud:

If Mifsud is a genuine Russian asset, he has been enabled by the United States’ most trusted allies. His relationship with senior intelligence and political leaders in Europe should constitute one of the greatest security breaches in decades.

It turns out Mifsud has known Papadopoulos’ now-wife, Simona Mangiante, for years. The story reads a bit like a spy novel.

From a January 18, 2018 Guardian article:

Long before Mifsud and Papadopoulos ever met, it was Mangiante who was introduced to the mystery professor while she was working in Brussels, in the European parliament, as an attorney specialising in child abduction cases.

She was introduced to Mifsud in about 2012 by Gianni Pittella, a well-known Italian MEP who in 2014 became president of the Socialists and Progressive Democrats group.

Pittella suggested she go to work for Mifsud in London, a city she loved. The professor offered her a job in 2016 at the important-sounding London Centre of International Law Practice. She was recruited, she now thinks, because of her extensive Brussels “contacts book”.

At around the same time that she started the job, in September 2016, Mangiante received a message on the LinkedIn social network from Papadopoulos. Papadopoulos had worked at the law centre briefly before joining Trump’s campaign.

Read the article. The full sequence of coincidental events are…unusual.

There appears to be a correlation between Papadopoulos and significant events surrounding Manafort’s involvement with the Trump Campaign. Also seemingly correlated are Papadopoulos’ contacts with Mifsud during some of these periods.

Manafort’s initial contact with the Trump Campaign:

November 2015 – Mifsud joins London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP).
November/December 2015 – Papadopoulos may have joined London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP) around the same time. Reporting is conflicted.
December 28 2015 – Strzok text: “You get all our oconus lures approved?” OCONUS is an acronym for Outside of the Continental United States.
Late February 2016 – Papadopoulos more commonly acknowledged to have joined London Centre of International Law Practice (LCILP) after leaving Ben Carson’s campaign.
Feb. 29 2016 – Manafort reaches out to Trump Campaign. The two sides begin talking. Manafort is under FISA Surveillance at this time.
March 14 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy – approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
March 16 2016 – Strzok text: “Our guy is talking.”

Manafort’s hiring by the Trump Campaign:

March 14 2016 – Papadopoulos first meets Mifsud in Italy – approximately one week after finding out he will be joining the Trump team.
March 16 2016 – Strzok text: “Our guy is talking.”
March 21 2016 – Carter Page & George Papadopoulos join the Trump Campaign as advisors on foreign policy.
March 24 2016 – Papadopoulos, Mifsud, Olga Polonskaya and possibly an unknown fourth party (designated the “Russian Ambassador to London – who also acts as the Deputy Foreign Minister”) meet in a London cafe. Polonskaya is introduced as “Putin’s niece”. Polonskaya is known as “Female Russian National” in the October 5, 2017 unsealed Statement of Offense and “Foreign Contact 3” July 27, 2017 Affidavit.
March 25 2016 – DNC Operative Alexandra Chalupa shares concerns regarding Manafort, Trump and their ties to Russia with the Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S.
March 28 2016 – Manafort hired by the Trump Campaign. FISA Surveillance on Manafort stops on or before this date.
March 29 2016 – Chalupa briefs DNC staff on Manafort, Trump concerns.
March 31 2016 – Papadopoulos attends D.C. “national security” meeting with Trump and other foreign policy advisors. Papadopoulos states he “had connections that could help arrange a meeting between then-candidate Trump and President Putin.” This is Papadopoulos’ only direct visit with the Trump Campaign I know of.
April 2016 – Brennan is shown information from Baltic State Intelligence Agency regarding Trump Campaign.

Manafort’s promotion to Campaign Chairman:

April 18 2016 – Mifsud introduces Papadopoulos by email to Ivan Timofeev, an official in Moscow at a state-sponsored think tank called Russian International Affairs Council. Timofeev tells Papadopoulos he has connections to the Russian Ministry of Affairs (MFA). Timofeev is referred to as the “Russian MFA Connection” in the October 5, 2017 unsealed Statement of Offense and Foreign Contact 2 in the July 27, 2017 Affidavit.
April 22 2016 – Timofeev sends Papadopoulos an email thanking him “for an extensive talk” and proposing “to meet in London or in Moscow.”
April 25 2016 – Papadopoulos emails a senior policy advisor for the Trump Campaign.
April 26 2016 – Investigative reporter Michael Isikoff published a story on Yahoo News about Paul Manafort’s business dealings with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.
April 26 2016 – Mifsud tells Papadopoulos he’s met with high-level Russian government officials who have “dirt” on Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails”. Papadopoulos will falsely tell the FBI he learned of this information prior to joining the Trump Campaign.
April 30 2016 – Papadopoulos thanks Mifsud for his “critical help” in arranging a meeting between the Campaign and the Russian government, and remarked: ” It’ s history making if it happens.”
April 30 2016 – Strzok text: “And now we’ve switched from the Patriot Act to a wire carrying current.”
May 3 2016 – Email reveals that Chalupa had been working with Yahoo News reporter Isikoff for the past several weeks.
May 5 2016 – Papadopoulos has a phone call with the Campaign Supervisor, and then forwards the May 4 MFA Email to him, adding to the top of the email: “Russia updates.”
May 9-13 2016 – FBI Counterintelligence Head Bill Priestap is in London.
May 10 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Australian Diplomat Alexander Downer.
May 13 2016 – Mifsud emails Papadopoulos an update of “recent conversations”.
May 14 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official and states that the ” Russian government[] ha[s] also relayed to me that they are interested in hosting Mr. Trump.”
May 19 2016 – Paul Manafort promoted to campaign chairman and chief strategist for Trump Campaign.
May 21 2016 – Papadopoulos emails another high-ranking Campaign official, with the subject line “Request from Russia to meet Mr. Trump.”
June 1 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official and asks about Russia.
June 9 2016 – Trump Tower Meeting between Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, Rinat Akhmetshin and Natalia Veselnitskaya.

Manafort’s resignation from the Trump Campaign:

~July 6-7 2016 – Initial Steele Dossier shared with State Department’s Victoria Nuland. Dossier/Memo is passed on to FBI. Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn and Corey Lewandowski are all listed in later memos in the Steele Dossier. Both Manafort and Page are referenced in an early undated Steele Memo (page 7). George Papadopoulos is never mentioned in any Steele memo.
July 7-8 2016 – Carter Page visits Moscow. Gives speech titled “future of the world economy”. The following day, Page gives commencement speech at the New Economic School in Moscow.
July 11 2016 – Page attends London symposium with Stefan Halper just three days after his July 2016 Moscow trip. Halper has connections to CIA & UK Intelligence. Also attending the symposium are Madeleine Albright, Vin Weber and former MI6 Head Sir Richard Dearlove. Halper and Page stay in regular contact for the next 14 months. Contact between Halper and Page ends in September 2017, around the time the third and final FISA Renewal on Page is set to expire.
July 14 2016 – Papadopoulos emails Timofeev and proposes a “meeting for August or September in the UK (London) with me and my national chairman, and maybe one other foreign policy advisor and you, members of president putin’s office and the mfa.”
July 15 2016 – Papadopoulos sends a private Facebook message to a Facebook account identified with Timofeev.
July 21 2016 – Papadopoulos sends another private Facebook message to Timofeev.
July 22 2016 – Papadopoulos messages Timofeev on Facebook to ask whether Timofeev knows a particular individual with extensive ties to Russian-based businesses and persons. Papadopoulos asks Timofeev “[i]f you know any background of him that is noteworthy before I see him, kindly send my way.” The referenced individual is Sergei Millian.
July 22 2016 – Australia informs FBI of Papadopoulos/Downer meeting – this is the stated point at which Papadopoulos lands on FBI’s radar. Note: Kim Strassel has reported that Downer passed the information directly to the US Embassy in London.
~July 23-25 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Sergei Millian. This meeting appears nowhere in either the Mueller or FBI legal documents relating to the Papadopoulos case.
July 31 2016 – FBI opens Counterintelligence Investigation.
August 1-August 15 2016 – Papadopoulos continues to communicate with Trump Campaign officials regarding a potential “off the record” meeting with Russian officials. There are probably foreign contacts made during this time but no details are disclosed in either the Mueller or FBI legal documents.
August 19 2016 – Paul Manafort “resigns” from Trump Campaign amidst reports of foreign lobbying efforts.
August 22 2016 – Steele Memo claims payments to Manafort from former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.
August/September 2016 – CIA Director Brennan meets with Gang of Eight suggesting Russia is helping Trump.
September 2 2016 – Stefan Halper first contacts Papadopoulos – offering to pay him to write a paper and inviting him to London.
September 5 2016 – Hillary Clinton accuses Russia of interfering with U.S. election.
September 13 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Halper in London. Halper has connections to CIA & UK Intelligence.
September 23 2016 – A Yahoo News article is published by Michael Isikoff based on leaks by Christopher Steele. The article is later used to corroborate the Steele Dossier.
September 26 2016 – Carter Page resigns from Trump Campaign.

Likely restart of FISA Warrant/Surveillance on Manafort:

Late September 2016 – Winer is shown copy of Cody Shearer Memo by Sidney Blumenthal. Winer shares a copy of Shearer’s Memo with Steele. Steele will later share Shearer’s Memo with the FBI.
Early October 2016 – Bruce Ohr meets with Dossier author Christopher Steele.
Early October 2016 – Bruce Ohr meets with Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS).
October 1 2016 – Papadopoulos sends Mifsud a private Facebook message with a link to an article from Interfax.com, a Russian news website. This is the last known contact between Papadopoulos & Mifsud. Their previous contact was on May 13, 2016.
October 3, 2016 – Steele meets in Rome with FBI Eurasian Joint Organized Crime Squad Team. Steele is asked to “explain how he had compiled his reports, and to give background on his sources.
October 7 2016 – Homeland Security and James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), officially accuse the Russian government of hacking the DNC “to interfere with the US election process.”
Mid-October 2016 – New FISA Warrant on Manafort likely issued. Possibly a National Security Letter.
Mid October 2016 – Steele meets with reporters again.
October 20 2016 – Steele Memo erroneously highlights a Cohen meeting with Kremlin officials in EU in August 2016. The meeting will later be identified as occurring in Prague.
Late October 2016 – Steel meets with David Corn of Mother Jones via Skype leading to Corn’s October 31, 2016 article.
October 21 2016 – FISA Warrant on Carter Page issued.

The Alexander Downer Meeting & June 20, 2016 Steele Memo:

The Papadopoulos/Downer meeting has been portrayed as a chance encounter in a bar. That does not appear to be the case.

Papadopoulos was introduced to Downer through a chain of two intermediaries.

Papadopoulos knew an Israeli embassy official in London named Christian Cantor who introduced Papadopoulos to Erika Thompson. Thompson was a counselor to Downer and served in Australia’s London embassy.

Thompson reached out to Papadopoulos two days after Papadopoulos gave an interview to the London Times. Thompson said Downer wanted to meet with Papadopoulos. Thus, the May 10th London meeting between Downer and Papadopoulos came into being.

Another individual happened to be in London at exactly the same time. The FBI’s Head of Counterintelligence Bill Priestap. The purpose of Priestap’s visit remains unknown. While I have not seen any reports that Priestap attended the Papadopoulos/Downer meeting, the timing seems overly fortuitous:

April 26 2016 – Mifsud tells Papadopoulos he’s met with high-level Russian government officials who have “dirt” on Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails”. Papadopoulos will falsely tell the FBI he learned of this information prior to joining the Trump Campaign.
April 27 2016 – Papadopoulos emails Trump Campaign Senior Policy Advisor: “Have some interesting messages coming in from Moscow about a trip when the time is right.”
April 30 2016 – Strzok text: “And now we’ve switched from the Patriot Act to a wire carrying current.”
May 4 2016 – Papadopoulos gives an interview to the London Times stating then-UK Prime Minister David Cameron should apologize to Trump for negative comments. It is not well-received in London or the Trump Camp.
May 5 2016 – Papadopoulos has a phone call with the Campaign Supervisor, and then forwards the May 4 MFA Email to him, adding to the top of the email: “Russia updates.”
May 9-13 2016 – FBI Counterintelligence Head Bill Priestap is in London.
May 10 2016 – Papadopoulos meets with Australian Diplomat Alexander Downer. Papadopoulos tells Downer “the Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election, which may be damaging”. (see Downer’s version below).
May 13 2016 – Mifsud emails Papadopoulos an update of “recent conversations”.
May 19 2016 – Paul Manafort promoted to campaign chairman and chief strategist for Trump Campaign.
May 21 2016 – Papadopoulos emails another high-ranking Campaign official, with the subject line “Request from Russia to meet Mr. Trump.”
June 1 2016 – Papadopoulos emails the High-Ranking Campaign Official and asks about Russia.
June 9 2016 – Trump Tower Meeting between Donald Trump Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, Rinat Akhmetshin and Natalia Veselnitskaya.
June 20 2016 – The first memo in the Steele Dossier notes: “A dossier of compromising information on Hillary Clinton has been collated by the Russian Intelligence Services.” Steele sends it to Fusion GPS via enciphered mail.

Downer has direct ties to UK Intelligence firm Hakluyt where he served on the Advisory Board from 2008-2014. Hakluyt’s top officials come from MI6. Several Board Members come from GCHQ – the UK’s NSA.

Downer was forced to resign from the Hakluyt position when he was appointed to head the Australian diplomatic post in London in 2014. But Downer reportedly maintained contact with Hakluyt officials. Downer knows UK’s former MI6 Head Richard Dearlove.

Downer also arranged one of the largest foreign donations to the Clinton Foundation – $25 million from the Australian government.

Downer’s version of the May 10, 2016 meeting noted that Papadopoulos told Downer “the Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election, which may be damaging”. Court documents state Papadopoulos got this information at an April 26, 2016 meeting with Joseph Mifsud.

Here’s what’s interesting. Neither the July 28, 2017 Affidavit signed by FBI Agent Robert M. Gibbs (Gibbs Version) nor the October 5, 2017 Statement of the Offense signed by Robert Mueller (Mueller Version) make mention of the May 10, 2016 Downer meeting.

Papadopoulos does mention thousands of emails in his FBI Interview in regards to his meeting with Mifsud. That comment is noted in the July 28, 2017 Affidavit and the October 5, 2017 Statement of the Offense. However, there is nothing regarding any comment made to Alexander Downer in either legal document.

What does Alexander Downer have to say about the meeting. From a news.com.au article:

We had a drink and he (Papadopoulos) talked about what Trump’s foreign policy would be like if Trump won the election.

He (Trump) hadn’t got the nomination at that stage. During that conversation he (Papadopoulos) mentioned the Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election, which may be damaging.

From the Daily Caller:

By the way, nothing [Papadopoulos] said in that conversation indicated Trump himself had been conspiring with the Russians to collect information on Hillary Clinton. It was just that this guy, [Papadopoulos], clearly knew that the Russians did have material on Hillary Clinton — but whether Trump knew or not?

He didn’t say Trump knew or that Trump was in any way involved in this. He said it was about Russians and Hillary Clinton; it wasn’t about Trump.

He didn’t say dirt; he said material that could be damaging to her. No, he said it would be damaging. He didn’t say what it was.

Despite initial reporting to the contrary, it appears Clinton emails were never mentioned at the Papadopoulos/Downer meeting.

The first memo in the Steele Dossier (June 20, 2016) – opening summary, first page, fourth bullet point – contains the following:

A dossier of compromising information on Hillary Clinton has been collated by the Russian Intelligence Services over many years and mainly compromises bugged conversations she had on various visits to Russia and intercepted phone calls.

The June 20 2016 Steele Dossier Memo appears to contain exactly the same type of information Papadopoulos mentioned to Alexander Downer…

The Papadopoulos Arrest:

Papadopoulos was interviewed by the FBI on January 27, 2017 leading to his eventual indictment for lying to FBI. Papadopoulos was arrested by the FBI on July 27, 2017:

January 27 2017 – Papadopoulos interviewed by FBI, which results in his eventual indictment for lying to FBI.
February 8-12 2017 – Mifsud speaks with FBI. Mifsud is never charged.
February 16 2017 – Papadopoulos interviewed again by FBI (item 32).
February 17 2017 – Papadopoulos deactivates Facebook account (item 33).
February 23 2017 – Papadopoulos changes cell phone numbers (item 34).
July 14 2017 – On or before this time Inspector General Horowitz discovers the Page/Strzok texts.
July 27 2017 – IG Horowitz notifies Mueller of Strzok/Page texts.
July 27 2017 – Papadopoulos arrested by FBI at Dulles Airport on flight from Germany. Landed at 7:00pm. No warrant is issued. Papadopoulos enters city detention center in Alexandria, Virginia, at 1:45am the next day.
July 28 2017 – Papadopoulos appears in court. He does not have an attorney and his case is sealed. Papadopoulos agrees to cooperate with Mueller. No contact with Trump Campaign is allowed.
Early August 2017 – Strzok removed from Special Counsel Investigation.
Summer 2017 – Mueller interviews Ivan Timofeev whom Mifsud connected to Papadopoulos on April 18 2017.
August 2 2017 – Rosenstein issues Mueller a revised “Scope of Investigation & Definition of Authority” Memo. It is heavily redacted.
August 2017 – Trump Campaign hands over emails from Papadopoulos to Special Counsel.
October 5 2017 – Papadopoulos enters a guilty plea under seal. He is booked at this time. Court Documents are signed by Jeannie Rhee, Andrew Goldstein, Aaron Zelinsky on Mueller’s behalf.
October 30 2017 – Court unseals Papadopoulos Case – shows he repeatedly discussed his Russia-related contacts with top campaign officials.

Two important events are missing from legal documents (Mueller Version & Gibbs Version) in the Papadopoulos Case:

The May 10, 2016 Alexander Downing meeting with Papadopoulos (see above).
The ~July 23-25 2016 Papadopoulos/Sergei Millian meeting.

Papadopoulos set up a meeting with Sergei Millian. On July 22, 2016, Papadopoulos asked his Mifsud contact, Ivan Timofeev, if he knew anything about Millian.

That same day, Australia supposedly told the FBI of Papadopoulos’ comments to Downer on May 10, 2016. Which somehow served as the basis for the FBI’s Counterintelligence Investigation.

Papadopoulos met with Millian somewhere around July 23-25, 2016.

Second or even third-hand comments from Millian have already made their way into the Steele Dossier, forming some of the most outlandish bits of the document. Additional information stemming from Millian will make its way into later Dossier Memos as well.

These meetings can only have been left out of the legal documents by intent.

The timing of Papadopoulos’ arrest by SC Mueller seems particularly coincidental:

Inspector General Horowitz’s discovery of Page/Strzok texts happened on or before July 14, 2017.
Horowitz formally began a new line of investigative pursuit on July 14, 2017.
Horowitz informed Mueller of the Strzok texts on July 27, 2017.

Given what we know from the Andrew McCabe OIG Report, Horowitz probably first saw the Strzok/Page texts in late June or early July 2017. Late May 2017 is possible. Recall:

McCabe first lied to the FBI’s Inspection Division on May 9, 2017.

McCabe authorized Lisa Page to share information with reporter Devlin Barrett – and Page did so thinking she had been granted legal/official authorization to do so.

Page, when confronted with McCabe’s denials, produced texts refuting the Deputy FBI Director’s deception. This led to the Inspector General uncovering the thousands of texts between Strzok and Page.

Inspector General Horowitz informed both Mueller and Deputy AG Rosenstein of the existence of the Strzok/Page texts on July 27, 2017.

Papadopoulos was arrested on July 27, 2017 at Dulles airport at 7pm in the evening. He flew in from Munich, Germany.

Papadopoulos’ agreement of government cooperation was reached swiftly – and with no attorney present:

Papadopoulos entered the city detention center on July 28, 2017 at 1:45am. He was checked out to “federal authority” at 8:27am on July 28, 2017. No warrant was used. Even more intriguing, Papadopoulos had no attorney present.

The same day, on July 28 2017, Papadopoulos appeared in court. He did not have an attorney and his case was sealed. Papadopoulos agreed to cooperate with Mueller.

It seems rather surprising a full agreement of cooperation with the government could have been worked out in such a short time frame. Papadopoulos was in jail from 1:45am to 8:27am on July 28, 2017. Papadopoulos was in front of a judge, government cooperation agreement in hand immediately. Without an attorney present.

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein issued his revised “Scope of Investigation & Definition of Authority” Memo to Mueller on August 2, 2017 – just five days after Papadopoulos’ sealed court hearing.

That memo is heavily redacted. I would very much like to know what lies behind those redactions.

The House Memo noted the use of Papadopoulos to open the FBI’s July 31, 2016 Counterintelligence Investigation:

The Papadopoulos information triggered the opening of an FBI counterintelligence investigation in late July 2016 by FBI agent Peter Strzok.

This point is important in relation to Papadopoulos’ arrest – one full year later. The FBI already knew everything in July 2016. They almost certainly knew earlier.

If the Papadopoulos information was enough to open a FBI counterintelligence investigation in July 2016, why did the FBI wait until January 2017 to even speak with Papadopoulos.
If the Papadopoulos information was so critical, why was there no mention of either the information or Papadopoulos in any of the three Intelligence Community Reports on Russian Election Interference.

The FBI Counterintelligence Investigation & the Summer 2016 FISA Warrants:

Recall that no official intelligence was used in opening the FBI’s Counterintelligence Investigation:

Nunes: There was no Five Eyes Intelligence Product – as it’s been reported. There was no product.

We are investigating the State Department. We think there are some major irregularities at the State Department and we’re trying to figure out how it is that this information – about Mr. Papadopoulos of all people – who was supposedly meeting with some folks in London, how that made it into the FBI’s hands.

The Guardian was one of the first major news organization to report on Summer 2016 FISA Applications in a January 11, 2017 article:

The Guardian has learned that the FBI applied for a warrant from the foreign intelligence surveillance (FISA) court over the summer [2016] in order to monitor four members of the Trump team suspected of irregular contacts with Russian officials.

The FISA court turned down the application asking FBI counter-intelligence investigators to narrow its focus.

On January 12, 2017, a BBC News article, reported more specific details:

Lawyers from the National Security Division in the Department of Justice then drew up an application. They took it to the secret US court that deals with intelligence, the FISA Court, named after the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. They wanted permission to intercept the electronic records from two Russian banks.

Their first application, in June, was rejected outright by the judge. They returned with a more narrowly drawn order in July and were rejected again.

I can’t verify with total certainty the existence or non-existence of June/July 2016 FISA Applications.

But it’s worth noting that Senator Chuck Grassley requested information regarding June/July 2016 FISA Applications in a June 28, 2017 letter:

Media reports and the FISC’s 2016 annual report provide reason to believe that, in the course of these investigations, the FBI and Justice Department may have submitted proposed FISA applications that the FISC preliminarily evaluated and stated it would reject, which the FBI and Justice Department then modified and resubmitted.

The 2016 FISC Report…states that in 2016 the FISC denied nine applications or certifications, and denied in part or modified 365 orders.

The FBI’s inability to obtain a FISA Warrant in June and July 2016 would explain why the FBI opened its July 2016 Counterintelligence Investigation with no official evidence.

Which raises another question. Why is there no mention of Papadopoulos in the Steele Dossier.

Particularly when this document was so vital to obtaining the October 21, 2016 FISA Warrant on Carter Page.

Paul Manafort, Carter Page, Michael Cohen, Michael Flynn and Corey Lewandowski are all listed in the Steele Dossier. But no George Papadopoulos.

As I’ve documented throughout this article, Papadopoulos had more contact with Russians in 2016, then all the others combined.

I think it’s possible the FBI tried to use Papadopoulos in those two summer 2016 FISA attempts – and failed.

We know that CIA Director Brennan used intelligence from one of the Baltic States in April 2016 to establish an inter-agency Task Force:

Last April [2016], the CIA director was shown intelligence that worried him. It was – allegedly – a tape recording of a conversation about money from the Kremlin going into the US presidential campaign.

It was passed to the US by an intelligence agency of one of the Baltic States. The CIA cannot act domestically against American citizens so a joint counter-intelligence taskforce was created.

The taskforce included six agencies or departments of government.

We know that UK Intelligence was passed to Brennan in early summer 2016:

That summer, GCHQ’s then head, Robert Hannigan, flew to the US to personally brief CIA chief John Brennan. The matter was deemed so important that it was handled at “director level”, face-to-face between the two agency chiefs.

We know that FBI Agent Michael Gaeta met with Steele in London on July 5, 2016 after receiving permission from Victoria Nuland:

The FBI checked with Victoria Nuland’s office at the State Department. Nuland, having found Steele’s reports on Ukraine to have been generally credible, gave the green light. Within a few days, on July 5 [2016], Gaeta arrived and headed to Steele’s office near Victoria station. Steele handed him a copy of the report.

Per Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, the State Department received a summary of Steele’s Dossier sometime in July 2016:

In the middle of July, when he was doing this other work and became concerned, he passed two to four pages of short points of what he was finding and our immediate reaction to that was, this is not in our purview. This needs to go to the FBI.

It’s entirely possible that Nuland saw a summary of the Steele Dossier before FBI leadership. See, New Details of Victoria Nuland’s Role in the Steele Dossier.

The FBI had the June 20, 2016 Steele Memo in their possession sometime in early July 2016. FBI Agent Mike Gaeta personally read it on July 5, 2016. The information contained within the Steele Memo included details regarding Russia possessing a dossier of compromising information (“dirt”) on Hillary Clinton:

Note: The information in the June 20, 2016 Steele Memo was essentially no different than what was discussed by Papadopoulos and Downer on May 10, 2016.

We know there was no active surveillance on Manafort during this period.

Carter Page was probably not being surveilled at this time (emphasis on probably). Page had just finished up helping on the Evgeny Buryakov case.

Up until July 11, 2016, all direct contact was with George Papadopoulos through Mifsud and Downer. Carter Page did not personally meet Halper until July 11, 2016 at the July 2016 Cambridge symposium.

If there was a June and/or July 2016 FISA Application, it’s a reasonable bet that one of two things occurred:

Papadopoulos was targeted in those FISA Applications.
Information from Papadopoulos was referenced in those FISA Applications.

Both FISA’s were rejected by the FISA Court (FISC).

The FBI could not afford a third strike under either scenario. Papadopoulos and/or information directly related/attributed to him could not be used a third time.

But the FBI could use Papadopoulos as a temporary excuse to start their Counterintelligence Investigation while Steele continued his work on the Dossier.

They FBI conveniently received “verified” Papadopoulos comments through Australian Embassy counterparts on July 22, 2016. Note: Kim Strassel has reported that Downer passed the information directly to the US Embassy in London.

The FBI opened their Counterintelligence Investigation on July 31, 2016. We know it was opened using no official intelligence. Consider two differing scenarios:

Scenario 1: On July 22, 2016, the FBI is informed that Papadopoulos told Downer “the Russians might use material that they have on Hillary Clinton in the lead-up to the election, which may be damaging” in a London hotel bar conversation. July 22, 2016 is the first time Papadopoulos lands on FBI’s radar. Just over a week later, on July 31, 2016, the FBI opens a massive Counterintelligence Investigation into an opposing presidential candidate’s campaign based solely on this single conversation. A conversation that differs little from details contained in the June 20, 2016 Steele Dossier Memo the FBI already has in their possession.
Scenario 2: The FBI, pushed by CIA Director Brennan, have been attempting to establish a formal Counterintelligence Investigation into the Trump Campaign for months. Despite the establishment of an inter-agency task force and the use of unofficial foreign intelligence the FBI fails to gain a FISA Warrant not once, but twice. The FBI has already been engaging in surveillance of the Trump Campaign. A legal cover is needed. In a desperate gambit, the Papadopoulos information is seized upon as a “stop-gap” measure. The FBI formally opens a Counterintelligence Investigation under undisclosed pretenses while the Steele Dossier is more fully composed in order to obtain a FISA Warrant on the FBI’s newest target, Carter Page.

I’ll leave it for you to decide which scenario appears more plausible.

It appears that FBI Agent Strzok met with Downer at Australia’s London Embassy on August 2, 2016. Strzok was likely interviewing Downer – formalizing Papadopoulos’ comments after the FBI’s Counterintelligence Investigation had already begun.

Papadopoulos didn’t fix the FBI’s problem. He merely bought the FBI some time. Carter Page became the FBI’s new pathway to fixing that problem.

Stefan Halper met with Carter Page for the first time on July 11, 2016, just three days after Page’s July 2016 Moscow trip.

Halper stayed in contact with Page for the next fourteen months. Halper stopped contact exactly as the Final FISA Warrant on Page expired.

Carter Page ultimately solved the FBI’s problem. But Papadopoulos, wittingly or unwittingly, may have led the FBI on a long and winding path to that solution.

newer post The Bruce Ohr & Christopher Steele Conversations

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